Getty Kirk Cousins #8 of the Minnesota Vikings.
Former Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins appeared to have won free agency after agreeing to a lucrative new deal with the Atlanta Falcons, but looks can be deceiving.
Bill Barnwell of ESPN on Wednesday, May 8, named Cousins among the biggest losers in the league following the NFL draft. His reasoning was simple: that Atlanta made the surprise pick of Michael Penix Jr. at No. 8 overall, flipping its entire quarterback situation on its head.
“The new Atlanta quarterback reportedly didn’t know the Falcons were considering Penix until the selection was made,” Barnwell wrote. “The organization didn’t even pursue Penix heavily, as the Washington quarterback didn’t make a pre-draft visit to Atlanta. It is one of the most stunning top-10 picks in recent memory.”
Cousins signed a $180 million, four-year deal with the Falcons approximately six weeks before, which includes $100 million fully-guaranteed. However, the presence of Penix changes the math under center considerably, and could alter Cousins’ future and Atlanta’s preferences as well.
The outcome could be that the four-time Pro Bowler spends just one season, or perhaps only two, with the Falcons before heading elsewhere. The three teams Barnwell suggested as Cousins’ most likely landing spots are the Las Vegas Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans.
Kirk Cousins Could Depart Atlanta Via Cut or Trade
GettyQuarterback Kirk Cousins, formerly of the Minnesota Vikings.
Barnwell laid out the scenarios, including both a trade after one season — if Cousins agrees to one — or a cut after his first or second year in the NFC South Division.
[Cousins] has a full no-trade clause, which means he can force the franchise to pay him that $100 million over two years before moving on to Penix for the 2026 season. Naturally, while Cousins might not want to move on to another city after just landing in Atlanta, the veteran might also not want to sit in 2025 behind Penix if the Falcons are ready to move on and there’s an exciting opportunity available elsewhere.
Could the Falcons move on after one year? Yes, although it would be more complicated. If Cousins agrees to a trade, it would be easy. … The Falcons would have $37.5 million in dead money on their cap, but we’ve seen teams [grow] more comfortable eating that sort of dead money if they’re ready to move on from a quarterback.
Projecting potential landing spots a year in advance is a tricky game to play, but the obvious one (San Francisco 49ers) appears to be off the board. … Otherwise, the other potential landing spots appear to be with the Raiders, Steelers and Titans, none of whom have a settled quarterback of the future.
Kirk Cousins Could Still Lose Long-Game With Falcons, Even After Signing for $100 Million Guaranteed
GettyQuarterback Kirk Cousins of the Atlanta Falcons.
Cousins is going to secure his money no matter what, but after earning nearly $232 million already with another $100 million guaranteed on the way, career victory means something more to the former Vikings QB than just that.
He stated publicly several times that he loved Minneapolis and considered it a home for himself and his family. Cousins’ wife has several ties in Atlanta, which could render that city something similar. Now, however, it appears at least reasonably likely that the 35-year-old quarterback (36 in August) could be on the move again after a year or two.
Cousins also certainly wants to win on the field. While he has posted impressive career statistics, including nearly 39,500 passing yards and 270 TDs, Cousins has won just once in the playoffs (1-4 career record).
The Falcons have amassed an impressive cast of skill players over the past few years and play in a relatively weak division. A Super Bowl feels like a stretch in the next season or two, but a couple of division titles and a couple chances to make some noise in the playoffs both read like realistic outcomes for the Falcons.
Cousins may need to leave a place that feels like home in Atlanta, assuming it doesn’t actually become home by then, and vacate a starting job for a contender before his career is finished — or choose the bench instead. Even with an extra $100 million in his pocket, that’s a far cry from winning for a QB who left Minnesota feeling confident it was the right path forward.