Getty Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell (left) and quarterback Kirk Cousins.
The Minnesota Vikings will have to address the quarterback situation with competition in 2024 if Kirk Cousins walks in free agency — and Trey Lance is considered a possible candidate to compete for the starting job.
In the aftermath of the NFL Scouting Combine, Rich Eisen detailed his top-5 rumors from the combine, starting with talk that Lance, a Marshall, Minnesota native, could be a “possible solve” at quarterback for the Vikings since head coach Kevin O’Connell seemed at peace that Cousins has “earned the right to be a free agent.”
“Before he said that, I heard this rumor that a possible solve at quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings is a native of the state, and his name is Trey Lance,” Eisen said on his show on March 4.
Selected third overall in 2021 by the San Francisco 49ers, Lance was considered the 49ers’ future franchise quarterback, signing a four-year, $34.1 million deal.
Lance won the starting job over Jimmy Garoppolo ahead of the 2022 season but suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 2. The emergence of Brocy Purdy ultimately derailed San Francisco’s plans for Lance, who was traded to the Dallas Cowboys in exchange for a fourth-round pick last summer.
“Now the Cowboys picked up — kept him on the roster long enough to get a bonus, so they’re paying him money to keep him, and they, as you know, got him for a (fourth-round pick),” Eisen added. “I’m just wondering if the Vikings flip him a (third-round pick), a Friday night pick. Do they go ahead and do that?”
Trey Lance Has Less Experience, is Younger Than Bo Nix
GettyDallas Cowboys quarterback Trey Lance
It’s easy to write off Lance as a bust, but there was a reason the 49ers traded three first-round picks to land the Minnesota-made quarterback.
Beyond his athleticism, Lance’s accuracy and decision-making in college were on display when he threw 28 touchdowns and zero interceptions in 16 games in his sophomore year. The pandemic shortened Lance’s junior year, but the interest he was garning in the NFL led to him declaring for the 2021 draft.
The 49ers took a chance on Lance but needed him to be ready with their Super Bowl window open now. Lance didn’t appear to be ready.
That makes sense considering Lance has just 591 pass attempts in his entire career since high school. That’s fewer than some NFL quarterbacks attempt in a single season, and pales in comparison to even this year’s quarterback draft class.
For example, Oregon quarterback Bo Nix, who is two months older than Lance, played out all five years of his eligibility in college, attempting 1,936 passes in that span. Nix had nearly five times as much exposure to Divison I-level talent.
Lance’s gap in playing experience will be difficult to bridge as he’s fallen to third-string status around the league.
But with a couple of years of playing experience, Lance could catch up to the speed of the NFL game — but it would require patience from a prospective team.
Trey Lance needs playing time.
There’s no pathway for him to get it.
99 HS pass attempts.
318 College pass attempts.
72 NFL preseason attempts
102 NFL regular season attempts.
In his ENTIRE FOOTBALL CAREER, he has fewer pass attempts than Geno Smith had just last year.
NFL…
Vikings’ Best Course of Action at QB Doesn’t Align With Lance
GettyHead coach Kevin O’Connell of the Minnesota Vikings.
The Vikings could take the 49ers’ approach at quarterback this season by creating a competition. A first-round rookie quarterback, a veteran bridge quarterback and a reclamation project like Lance would give the organization options both short- and long-term.
However, Lance currently does not fit a long-term timeline in Minnesota. He is in the final year of his rookie deal and his fifth-year option would cost $22.4 million.
Paying that amount to a veteran bridge quarterback who is a proven starter would be worthwhile. But for Lance, it’s not a smart investment and would need to be exercised by May — well before Lance could prove his worth and be developed under Kevin O’Connell.
However, if Lance takes a redshirt year and does not play, his market would likely not be strong in free agency, which could result in the Vikings signing him to an affordable extension.
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