Getty New York Jets owner Woody Johnson on September 26, 2021.
The New York Jets drafting has obviously been horrendous over the past decade but just how bad have they been in comparison to the other 32 NFL franchises?
ESPN published an analytical breakdown on April 22, ranking the teams in terms of NFL draft “value,” and the Jets came in dead last. The Seattle Seahawks finished first, appearing in two Super Bowls with one championship run and four division titles over that span.
So, what went into this study? When did Gang Green make their biggest errors in judgment? And where does the franchise go from here?
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Jets Breakdown From ESPN
First off, to briefly explain how this metric was measured, I will quote ESPN. They explained: “To evaluate the players taken in each of the past 10 NFL drafts (2012-2021), we used Approximate Value (AV) — Pro Football Reference’s method of measuring the performance of every NFL player. We took each player’s career AV and measured it against a value based on where that player was taken in the NFL draft — we’re calling it Career Approximate Value Over Expected (CAVOE).”
ESPN noted that they ranked based on the combined 10-year CAVOE score of each organization and that “seven of the top eight teams in our ranking also had one of the eight best records over the last decade” — so the data is relatively accurate in determining NFL success.
The Jets’ last-place CAVOE score was a -304.9, leading to a 55-106 record. That win-loss percentage finished 30th out of the 32 teams in the league. They also held a last-place CAVOE number of -73.3 for day 3 selections (rounds 4-7).
Their top CAVOE mark of the decade was linebacker Demario Davis, a third-round pick in 2012 (+53.0). The worst was 2013 first-round bust, Dee Milliner (-46.5), a former All-American cornerback out of Alabama.
For comparison, the Seahawks earned a +176.6 score with third-round quarterback Russell Wilson as their top contributor (+107.1).
While John Idzik and Mike Maccagnan are the major general managers at fault, Joe Douglas’ first two drafts and Mike Tannenbaum’s final draft are included in this ranking as well. If you break the statistics down by GM, here are their respective CAVOE grades ahead of 2022.
- Tannenbaum: -17.9 (one draft).
- Idzik: -144.7 (two drafts).
- Maccagnan: -121.3 (five drafts).
- Douglas: -21.0 (two drafts so far).
NYJ correspondent Rich Cimini wrote the section for the Green & White, which detailed what he deemed as the top draft class since 2012. He stated:
2017. Picking the Jets’ best draft class is like choosing between different kinds of stale cheese: They’re all rotten, but one stinks less than the others. In 2017, they used their first two picks on a pair of safeties, Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye, both of whom have enjoyed productive careers. Adams made two Pro Bowls and one All-Pro team before demanding a trade. Their 2021 draft has a chance to be special, but it’s too soon to toss it flowers, especially with the jury still out on quarterback Zach Wilson.
For the record, Douglas’ 2021 draft class has yielded the only positive CAVOE score of the last decade as of now, and both the 2016 and 2018 classes (among others) earned higher overall marks than 2017. Cimini most likely avoided those classes because of the stain left by quarterback selections Christian Hackenberg and Sam Darnold.
Draft expert Jordan Reid chose defensive tackle Folorunso Fatukasi as the “best day 3 steal” of the past decade, a sixth-round selection in 2018. “Fatukasi was an underrated piece on the Jets defensive line,” he voiced. “Recently signing a three-year, $30 million deal with the Jaguars, he was rewarded for outplaying his original draft spot.”
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Moments of Regret & Positive Thoughts for the Future
Considering their polar opposite rankings, ESPN included a couple of early moments when the Jets could have selected a Seahawks cornerstone.
“In the second round [of 2012], the Jets were so smitten with a speedy, but raw wide receiver named Stephen Hill that they traded up a few spots and bypassed linebacker Bobby Wagner,” the report stated. “Hill’s career lasted 23 games and Wagner, picked four spots after Hill, probably will wind up in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.”
According to ESPN, Jets personnel executive Terry Bradway also “implored” Tannenbaum and the front office to draft Wilson as their quarterback of the future. They noted that the exec’s nickname around the building was “Russell Bradway” because of his faith in the eventual Super Bowl champion.
There is one positive to hang your hat on though, and that’s 2021. Paired with head coach Robert Saleh and his staff, Douglas is coming off the franchise’s No. 1 draft in at least 10 years.
Keep in mind that this CAVOE score (+0.7) surges much higher if Zach Wilson turns out to be the franchise quarterback for years to come. The Jets also have five selections in the top 69 picks this April and nine total. It’s not an exaggeration to say that this class — plus the development of the 2020 and 2021 classes — could make or break Douglas and Saleh’s tenure leading the organization.
Nail it in 2022, and we could be talking about this regime for the next decade. Blow it, and fans will likely be looking at yet another rebuild under a new front office in a couple of years. The pressure is on.
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Jets Rank Dead Last in Integral ESPN Analytic Since 2012