Under previous general manager Kevin Colbert, Pittsburgh Steelers fans typically had a strong idea of which prospect the team was going to target in the first round. There was little drama around the team’s first selection as well. From 2000-22, the Steelers traded their first-round selection on draft night just four times.
But if the final round up of mock drafts and predictions from several experts is any indication, there isn’t a consensus of where the Steelers are going with their first-round pick on April 25.
NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah, Lance Zierlein and Peter Schrager, ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr., and Pro Football Focus’ Cris Collinsworth all predicted a different first-round draft outcome for the Steelers. Only two of them had Pittsburgh targeting the same prospect.
Schrager was the biggest black sheep of this mock draft group from a Steelers perspective. He predicted the Steelers to select LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr.
The other four analysts projected Pittsburgh to land an offensive lineman. Zierlein and Kiper agreed on Duke’s Graham Barton, but Kiper suggested the Steelers could trade up to land him.
Jeremiah and Collinsworth predicted the Steelers to target different offensive tackles — Oklahoma State’s Tyler Guyton and Alabama’s JC Latham.
Perhaps fittingly, none of those four players have been two of the more popular selections for the Steelers in mock drafts all offseason. According to the NFL mock draft database, 15.6% of mock drafts have projected the Steelers to select Georgia offensive tackle Amarius Mims.
In second place, Oregon center Jackson Powers-Johnson has been the pick for Pittsburgh in 14.7% of NFL mock drafts according to the database.
The lack of consensus figures to make for a wild night one of the 2024 draft for the Steelers.
Steelers Projected to Target Duke’s Graham Barton
Barton may not have been one of the more popular selections for Pittsburgh this offseason. However, his draft stock has appeared to be gaining momentum for Mike Tomlin and Omar Khan the past several weeks.
Barton played left tackle for Duke the last three seasons. But NFL scouts project him as a center at the next level. He started five games at center as a freshman in 2020.
Zierlein sees Barton as appealing for the Steelers because he would immediately fill the team’s need in the middle of their offensive line. The Duke prospect also presents little risk.
“I know the Steelers have needs at tackle, cornerback and wide receiver, but hear me out,” wrote Zierlein. “Pittsburgh certainly could use help along the interior O-line, as well, and Barton might be one of the safest picks in the first round as someone who can play center or guard as an immediate starter.”
Kiper also predicted the Steelers to target Barton, giving Pittsburgh fans some consensus in the hours prior to the draft. But the ESPN analyst didn’t rule out Khan trading up for the Duke lineman.
“Barton, my top-ranked center, has been a hot name in my calls with execs and coaches over the past week,” Kiper wrote. “People in the league think he’ll be really good immediately at the next level.
“Pittsburgh, which picks at No. 20 and has had big-time centers throughout its history, is the team most linked with Barton (Duke). I don’t think it’s out of the question Mike Tomlin & Co. trade up a few spots to make sure they get him.”
Pittsburgh Predicted to Select OT Tyler Guyton, JC Latham
It’s hard to argue that center isn’t Pittsburgh’s biggest need heading into the first round. The Steelers possess no natural centers on their current roster.
But there’s also little debate that offensive tackles offer more value where the Steelers are selecting at No. 20 overall. Pittsburgh found excellent value with Latham in Collinsworth’s final mock draft.
“Not many 342-pound men can move like Latham. His arms are over 35 inches and he has massive hands that are in the 90th percentile,” wrote Collinsworth. “Many will see him as the second-ranked tackle in this draft, and I can’t disagree.
“Latham has quick feet that he uses to jump rushers outside, but that can also get him into trouble on inside moves. It is a thing of beauty when he gets his long arms extended and those big hands locked on the target.
“You don’t always see his power until he has a down block or a double team, but he is just 21 years old and still has tremendous upside. With Chukwuma Okorafor and Mason Cole gone, this would be a dream pick for the Steelers.”
The Steelers could use an upgrade at right tackle. That would allow the team to flip 2023 first-rounder Broderick Jones back to left tackle immediately.
Six offensive tackles, including Latham, were off the board before No. 20 in Jeremiah’s last mock. But the NFL.com analyst still had the Steelers upgrading right tackle with Guyton.
“Cornerback is in play here, but the Steelers continue down the road they chose last year by upgrading the offensive line,” Jeremiah wrote. “Guyton and 2023 first-rounder Broderick Jones are two extremely athletic and agile big men who will anchor the O-line.”
Could Pittsburgh Select WR Brian Thomas Jr?
If there’s any consensus with the Steelers, their first-round pick will be an offensive lineman. But that’s not a guarantee.
In addition to the offensive line needs, Pittsburgh has a big hole at WR2. The Steelers have been rumored to be interested in trading for veterans Brandon Aiyuk or Courtland Sutton. But nothing has materialized on that front.
Therefore, it’s possible the Steelers surprise most draft analysts and target a receiver in the first round. That wouldn’t be a surprise to Schrager, who projected the Steelers to target Thomas.
“I still think there’s a giant move to be made by Pittsburgh at WR,” wrote Schrager. “Could it be for Brandon Aiyuk? If not, Thomas is a special talent who helped himself at the NFL Scouting Combine as much as any player at the position.
“I had this match in my first mock and am holding steady here.”
Thomas led the FBS with 17 receiving touchdowns last season. He also had 68 catches and 1,177 receiving yards. Thomas averaged 17.3 yards per reception.
Drafting the LSU receiver will obviously not help Pittsburgh’s offensive line. But pairing Thomas with George Pickens could give the Steelers a lethal 1-2 punch at wide receiver. Pickens led the NFL with an 18.1 yards per catch average last year.
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Steelers NFL Draft: Little Consensus Among Top Mock Draft Experts