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Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers are set to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2024 Super Bowl.
Mr. Irrelevant is headed to his first Super Bowl in just his second season in the NFL, and he faces a tall task in front of him in the Kansas City defense. The Chiefs are allowing a measly 13.7 points per game on defense over their three playoff games so far.
Purdy is leading a San Francisco offense that has put up 29.0 points per game this postseason. That’s exactly what the team averaged in the regular season, which was ranked third in the league.
Heavy’s projections model has the Niners as 5-point favorites over the incumbent champs, with the over/under set at 50.5 points.
The second-year signal-caller completed 61.4% of his passes for 519 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception in two playoff games against the Packers and Lions. But how will he fare against the Chiefs?
Here are three AI-powered predictions for Purdy’s using Heavy’s dfsPro Daily projections:
1. Brock Purdy May Be Under More Duress Than Usual
Quarter 4’s projections have the Chiefs’ defense with an 86% chance of getting the game’s first sack and a 70% chance of getting the game’s first interception. Purdy will also likely be sacked more than he normally is.
Purdy was sacked an average of 1.8 times per game during the regular season. Quarter 4’s projections have him getting sacked 2.6 times here, a 44.4% increase from the norm. The Chiefs averaged 3.5 sacks per game, so expect them to get after Purdy in a big way.
The Chiefs will be without defensive lineman Charles Omenihu, who will miss the game after tearing his ACL last week, so All-Pro Chris Jones has to have a big game. Kansas City has 6.0 sacks in three playoff games so far.
The Chiefs’ 57 sacks during the regular season was second in the NFL, so it’s no surprise Purdy will likely be running for his life.
One potential outcome of all this pressure? Purdy could continue to run the ball more. The Niners QB had 5 carries for 48 yards rushing against the Lions. It’s the second-highest total of the entire 2023 season. He could have a similar game here.
2. Purdy Will Throw Under 2 TDs
Heavy’s projections have Purdy throwing for 1.3 touchdowns against Kansas City, a 31.6% decrease from the 1.9 he averaged during the regular season. Purdy threw 2 or more TDs in nine games this season, but he has yet to have a multi-TD passing game in the postseason this year. The odds aren’t in his favor against the Chiefs, either.
Purdy was third in the NFL in TD passes this past season (31), and he’ll be taking on a Chiefs defense that was ranked eighth in the NFL in red zone defense. Expect him to turn to star running back Christian McCaffrey early and often.
Purdy has struggled early in games so far in the playoffs, but he has found a way to win in the end. Our model suggests that while the 49ers may win, it may not happen via Purdy’s arm.
3. Expect Purdy to Be Throwing More Than He Normally Does
The Heavy model also has Purdy throwing more than he typically does, with a projected 35.2 pass attempts and 24.7 completions. Purdy averages 27.8 passes per contest, so that’s nearly 27% more than he typically throws.
Additionally, the Niners QB averaged 19.3 completions a game this season, so 24.7 completions would be nearly a 28% increase from his average.
Our model also has Purdy throwing for 288.7 yards, an increase from his 267.5 per-game average.
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