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The 2024 Super Bowl will be the biggest game of San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey’s career.
“CMC” has been performing at an extremely high level since joining San Francisco in 2022 and now, the six-time All-Pro has a chance to make his stamp on the franchise in the biggest game there is.
He’ll be going up against a tough Kansas City Chiefs squad that ranked second in the NFL in total defense during the regular season.
McCaffrey led the NFL in rushing yards this season (1,459), as well as all-purpose yards (2,023). Always a threat in both the run and passing games, he will surely be priority No. 1 for Kansas City’s defense. He had 132 total yards and 2 touchdowns in the Divisional round against Green Bay, and he followed it up with 128 all-purpose yards and 2 TDs against the Lions in the NFC Championship last week.
So, what kind of numbers might he put up in this one?
Using Heavy’s dfsPro Daily projections, we put together three AI-powered predictions for McCaffrey’s first Super Bowl.
1. This Could Be a Big Receiving Game for CMC
McCaffrey averaged 4.2 receptions and 35.3 receiving yards per game this season. Heavy’s projections have him playing a bigger role than that against the Chiefs. The Heavy model has McCaffrey finishing with 5.9 catches (that’s a 40.5% increase from the norm), along with 50.0 receiving yards (that’s a 41.6% increase).
Our model also has him catching 0.7 receiving TDs, a very hefty 75% increase from the 0.4 receiving scores he typically averages.
He won’t be going up against a lackluster defense, either. Kansas City had the league’s fourth-best passing defense, allowing just 176.5 yards through the air per game.
In the playoffs, though, the Chiefs have allowed 136 yards receiving to opposing RBs on 18 catches (7.5 yards per catch). If that trend continues, McCaffrey could be a top target for Niners QB Brock Purdy.
2. McCaffrey Will Be Held to Under 80 Yards Rushing vs. Chiefs
Our model has McCaffrey finishing with 79.5 yards rushing, a -12.8% difference from his 91.2 per game average. He has been held under 80 yards on the ground just once in his last eight games, including his two postseason appearances, so this would not be a common occurrence.
Kansas City’s run defense has been middle of the ground this year, but the unit performed incredibly well last week against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens.
The Chiefs’ defense held Jackson and company, who boasted the NFL’s best rushing attack coming in (156.5 yards per game average), to just 89 yards all game. You can bet they’ll be trying to do the same to the 49ers and McCaffrey.
3. A Multiple-TD Game Is on the Table
McCaffrey had 7 multi-TD games last season, including the last two playoff games. If he doesn’t get another multi-touchdown performance here against the Chiefs, he’s probably going to come close.
Heavy’s projections have the star RB finishing with 1.1 rushing TDs and 0.7 receiving TDs, both up from his regular season averages (he averages 0.9 rushing TDs per game and 0.4 receiving TDs).
An anytime TD is pretty much a given, and while 2 TDs isn’t a lock, it might be a solid bet, too.
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