Getty The Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Wild Card Round.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one of four NFL teams that made the playoffs in 2023 and are predicted to have losing records in 2024.
For a franchise that has won three consecutive NFC South Division titles and brings back its core nucleus of players from last season, it’s hard not to perceive as a slap in the face.
The Athletic’s Vic Tafur has Tampa Bay as one of the “best bets” to hit the under after BetMGM set their over/under total for regular-season wins at 7.5. The Buccaneers finished 9-8 in 2023, winning five of their last six regular-season games before beating the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Wild Card Round.
“I don’t know how Baker Mayfield did it last season, scrambling around to buy time and make big throws to win a lot of tight games,” Tafur wrote. “He got rewarded with a big contract, as did Mike Evans, and I am not sure that’s the best thing for the Buccaneers in the long term. Or in the short team. They lost offensive coordinator Dave Canales to the Panthers, and I see regression on offense. I also see a defense that lost Shaquil Barrett, Devin White and Carlton Davis.”
Why Are Oddsmakers Down on Buccaneers?
If you’re looking for an answer to why oddsmakers are so down on the Buccaneers and their potential win total in 2024, it boils down to just one player on one team — and he’s not in Tampa Bay.
That player is new Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins.
After going 7-10 in 2023, Atlanta’s over/under is at 9.5 wins after luring Cousins away from the Minnesota Vikings with a 4-year, $180 million free-agent contract. In nine seasons as a full-time starter he’s only had a losing record twice and never finished more than two games under .500. Cousins is also tied with Matthew Stafford for the NFL record for game-winning drives (8) and fourth quarter comebacks in a single season (8)
Cousins, a four-time Pro Bowler, is coming off the worst injury of his career after tearing his Achilles tendon in 2023, but was on pace to throw for over 4,500 yards and 35 touchdowns. Through eight games he had 2,331 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Cousins threw for over 4,000 yards in seven of eight previous seasons, including 4,547 yards, 29 touchdowns and a career-high 14 interceptions in 2022.
The New Orleans Saints (7.5 wins) and Carolina Panthers (5.5 wins) round out the NFC South — the Saints went 9-8 in 2023 and the Panthers had the worst record in the NFL at 2-15.
Offseason All About Huge Contracts, Solid Draft
The Buccaneers are at No. 9 in the NFL in offseason spending at $350.6 million thanks in large part to new deals for Mayfield (3 years, $100 million), Evans (2 years, $52 million) and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (4 years, $84.1 million).
The biggest deal might still be on the horizon. Two-time NFL All-Pro offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs is seeking a contract that could make him the highest-paid player at his position in NFL history.
The Buccaneers will have two new starters on the offensive line in free-agent guard Ben Bredeson and rookie center Graham Barton, Tampa Bay’s first round pick at No. 26 overall. Rookie wide receiver Jalen McMillan could also be a starter right away.