Bills running back Karlos Williams will have serious fantasy value if LeSean McCoy misses the game Sunday. (Getty)
In order to have a successful fantasy football team you have to know how to play the matchups.
That’s tough to do early in the season, but after three games we start to begin seeing patterns. Patterns like what teams are good at what and what teams are just plain bad.
So with that in mind, here are the worst rushing defenses so far in 2015. These are the teams you need to exploit when figuring out which running backs to play.
Chicago Bears — 135.7 yards per game, 4.7 yards per carry, 2 TDs allowed
San Diego Chargers — 135.7 ypg, 4.9 ypc, 4 TDs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 138 ypg, 3.9 ypc, 4 TDs
Miami Dolphins — 145.0 ypg, 4.2 ypc, 1 TD
Cleveland Browns — 158.3 ypg, 4.9 ypc, 3 TDs
Click here to see the complete team defense rushing stats.
And don’t forget to bookmark our fantasy football rankings 2015 page to keep up-to-date on the latest projections and rankings for each NFL week throughout the season. All of my Week 4 rankings are up.
Here’s our version of start and sit: “He Will Shine” and “Show Him the Pine.”
He Will Shine
Mark Ingram, Saints, vs. Cowboys
The Cowboys have been pretty stout vs. the run, but are coming off a Week 3 cram-it-down-their-throat performance by Atlanta’s Devonta Freeman (more on that in a second). Ingram isn’t piling up the yards, but he’s been finding the endzone and has become quite the receiver, which makes him even more appealing in PPR leagues.
Devonta Freeman, Falcons, vs. Texans
OK, back to that Freeman performance from Week 3 — in a nutshell, he killed it. Freeman bullied the ‘Boys for 141 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Texans have allowed only 1 TD and under 4 yards per carry, but Freeman is now running with confidence and authority, a style he didn’t have over the first 2 weeks. There is a slight concern now he’s dealing with a toe injury (and the potential return of backfield mate Tevin Coleman), but if Freeman plays (he likely will), you have to start him.
Karlos Williams, Bills, vs. Giants
Williams could be the sneaky play of the week. The rookie from Florida State has scored in each of the first three games and now with LeSean McCoy extremely questionable (that’s not an official NFL designation, I don’t think) with a hamstring injury, Williams becomes even more enticing. With 18-20 touches vs. the Giants, Williams should bulldoze his way to double-digit fantasy points.
Also start:
Joseph Randle, Cowboys, at Saints
Frank Gore, Colts, vs. Jaguars
Chris Johnson, Cardinals, vs. Rams
Show Him the Pine
Lamar Miller, Dolphins, vs. Jets
Ryan Mathews just torched the Jets for 100+ yards, but Miller won’t. He hasn’t seen more than 13 carries in a game because the Dolphins are just airing it out. Despite Week 3, the Jets are allowing only 3.5 yards per carry. And another concern: Jonas Gray. The backup will start stealing carries if Miller keeps up his “blah” play.
Jeremy Hill, Bengals, vs. Chiefs
Right now Hill isn’t acting like the first-round pick you made him. And he’s not gonna start this week. The Chiefs have yet to give up a rushing TD and teammate Gio Bernard has forced the Bengals to go to the dreaded running back by committee. The Chiefs are constantly being exposed in the passing game, so expect that to continue with Andy Dalton and Co. on Sunday.
Doug Martin, Buccaneers, vs. Panthers
Martin is about to lose his “Muscle Hamster” nickname. Though he’ll be thrilled because he hates it. Either way, there is nothing muscle-y about the Hamster these days. Carolina boasts the 4th-stingiest rushing defense in the league and Tampa has 1 TD on the ground and it didn’t come from Martin. Keep an eye on Charles Sims, Martin’s backup.
Also sit:
Alfred Morris, Redskins, vs. Eagles
Rashad Jennings, Giants, at Bills
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