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In Missouri, Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill is in an extremely tight race against Attorney General Josh Hawley to retain her seat in the U.S. Senate. Hawley is now projected to have won the election.
What did the polls show on election day?
The polls show an extremely tight race. The latest poll showed Hawley with a 3-point lead. However, the poll before that one showed the race was a dead heat. Altogether, RealClearPolitics lists six recent polls in the Missouri Senate race. Hawley led in two of those polls. McCaskill led in two of those polls. Two of those polls were tied. You can see the specifics for each of the most recent polls later in this article. (There have been many other older polls in the Missouri Senate race. You can see a full list here.
As election day arrives, Hawley now leads in the RealClearPolitics polling average by 0.6 percent, making the race one of the closest in the country. “Neither Josh Hawley nor Claire McCaskill has had a lead of more than four points in a single poll for the entire year, placing this race well within the margin of error. The undecided voters are likely Trump supporters, but it is hard to say which way they’ll go in this volatile election,” RealClearPolitics wrote.
Some have attributed Hawley’s slight surge to the controversies over Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and McCaskill’s position on Kavanaugh’s nomination. Hawley is the Missouri attorney general. McCaskill was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006. Other issues have also dominated the race, such as health care.
McCaskill had announced she is voting against Kavanaugh, saying, “It is his allegiance to the position that unlimited donations and dark anonymous money, from even foreign interests, should be allowed to swamp the voices of individuals that has been the determining factor in my decision to vote no on his nomination.” Hawley has made the Kavanaugh situation an issue in the race. Some have cited the migrant caravan as an issue energizing Republican voters too.
McCaskill is among 10 U.S. Senators who are Democrats but must win election in states that went for President Donald Trump.
Here’s a round up of the latest polls in McCaskill vs. Hawley as of Election Day on November 6, 2018.
Emerson [11/01/18 to 11/03/18]
| Josh Hawley | 49% |
| Claire McCaskill | 46% |
HarrisX [10/29/18 to 11/04/18]
| Josh Hawley | 45% |
| Claire McCaskill | 45% |
Trafalgar Group [10/29/18 to 11/04/18]
| Josh Hawley | 48% |
| Claire McCaskill | 44% |
Missouri Scout [11/01/18 to 11/02/18]
| Josh Hawley | 47% |
| Claire McCaskill | 47% |
NBC News/Marist [10/30/18 to 11/01/18]
| Claire McCaskill | 50% |
| Josh Hawley | 47% |
Fox News [10/27/18 to 10/30/18]
| Claire McCaskill | 45% |
| Josh Hawley | 45% |