Play-In Tournament Props: Fade Ingram Over Points Against Lakers

Getty Brandon Ingram evaluates the defense while posting up Cameron Payne.

Brandon Ingram has officially returned from a scary knee injury, putting the New Orleans Pelicans at full power as they enter the Play-In Tournament. The Pelicans will be tasked with knocking off the LeBron James-led Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday night, which could be a significant challenge given their history against L.A. this season.

Our dfsPro model expects Ingram to underperform in limited minutes for the Pelicans, while LeBron could reach double-digit assists for the fourth time in five games on Tuesday night, April 16.

Let’s analyze these bets from the first Play-In Tournament game, which features two dark horse title contenders from a jam-packed Western Conference.

NBA Player Props for April 16

Brandon Ingram Under 18.5 Points (-112) – DraftKings

While Ingram is back in the starting lineup, don’t expect him to immediately resume his status as the primary offensive option for the Pelicans. Ingram’s first game back on Sunday, April 14, resulted in an efficient but modest 13-point outing on 6-for-9 shooting from the field in 23 minutes. 

Even though head coach Willie Green has indicated that Ingram’s minutes will increase in Tuesday’s matchup, don’t expect him to immediately return to his usual offensive workload, especially with Trey Murphy’s recent play.

Our AI-powered model projects Ingram to finish with 16.9 points, 3.9 below (-18.75%) his season average of 20.8 points per game.

LeBron James 10+ (Alt) Rebounds (+110) – DraftKings

During the Lakers’ key road win against the Pelicans on Sunday night, James posted a surreal stat line, including 28 points, 17 assists and 11 rebounds. James played over 38 minutes and registered a 31.2% usage rate en route to an uber-impressive triple-double.

That win helped the Lakers hold on to the No. 8 seed, which allows them two opportunities to make the NBA Playoffs: they can either win on the road against the Pels or at home versus the winner of the Kings versus Warriors game.

James had similar success in the previous game against New Orleans in February, recording 14 assists during a massive 17-point home win. Simply put, he has had the Pels’ number for a while.

LeBron has also logged double-digit assists in three of his past four games, including the vintage outing against New Orleans, and our model expects him to finish with 10 assists again in this bout.

1 Last Thought

This Play-In Tournament matchup between the Lakers and Pelicans is close to a “pick’em,” as the Moneyline odds for both teams on DraftKings are -110. However, the Pels have been steamrolled in three of their past four games versus the “Lake Show” this season, losing by 44, 17 and 16 points in those bouts.

Despite missing 18 games during the 2023-24 campaign, Ingram was available for all four games against the Lakers, posting just 17.5 points per contest. Ingram’s presence has not given New Orleans a significant advantage over Los Angeles this season, so don’t expect that to happen suddenly in this spot in just his second game back from injury.

Our dfsPro model has given the Lakers a 51% chance of winning on the road in New Orleans. It certainly helps that the Pels have Ingram back from injury, but he will not be at full strength after missing 12 consecutive games.