Getty Red Sox pitcher Nick Pivetta
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for July 19. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Nick Pivetta Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (-150, DraftKings)
Nick Pivetta has exceeded this mark in 5 of his last 8 starts, including his past two outings. Now, he faces the Los Angeles Dodgers, who rank second in walks drawn overall and third at home this season, especially prone against right-handed pitchers.
Bookmakers anticipate Pivetta pitching deep into the game, evident from his high outs line (17.5). Typically needing 80-100 pitches to reach the sixth inning, Pivetta has cleared this walk line in 5 of 8 games where he threw at least 85 pitches this season. Since 2022, he’s achieved this in 70% of such high-pitch count games.
Recent trends support this bet further: 7 of the last 8 right-handed starters against the Dodgers surpassed this walk line, with 5 of the last 6 doing so on the road (4 consecutive instances).
The oddsmakers also predict Pivetta to allow over 2.5 earned runs (favoring the over) and concede 5.5 hits, suggesting he might encounter challenges during his 5-6 innings. Considering the Dodgers’ proficiency against right-handed pitching and their rested post-All Star Break lineup, this line appears slightly undervalued.
Chris Flexen Over 17.5 Pitching Outs Recorded (-115, DraftKings)
Chris Flexen has exceeded this mark in 3 consecutive games and 4 of his last 5 outings, but he faces a formidable challenge coming off the All-Star break against the Kansas City Royals, particularly at their home turf. Bobby Witt Jr., in particular, boasts impressive stats at home with a .380 batting average and .436 on-base percentage.
Flexen isn’t a dominant strikeout pitcher, ranking in the 13th percentile for K%, nor does he excel in inducing ground balls, ranking in the 23rd percentile. Metrics like xERA (27th percentile) and xBA (30th percentile) also indicate he’s vulnerable.
Recent history supports the under here: 8 of the last 11 right-handed starters facing the Royals on the road have fallen short of this outs line. Flexen himself has only exceeded it in 3 of 8 road starts this season and in just 6 out of 20 games overall, with a few appearances coming from the bullpen.
While Flexen did surpass this line in an early April matchup against the Royals, he did so on just 77 pitches. Given the fully rested bullpen, his leash could be short in this outing. Notably, since 2022, Flexen has been under this outs line in 90% of his road games, underscoring the challenge he faces against the Royals’ potent lineup at their home stadium.
NRFI Bet of the Day
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves Under 0.5 1st Inning Runs (-130, DraftKings)
Spencer Schwellenbach gets the start for the Atlanta Braves, boasting a perfect 8-0 record on No Run First Inning (NRFI) bets this season, including a flawless 4-0 record at home. He faces the St. Louis Cardinals, who have struggled, being held scoreless in 81% of their first innings on the road and in 8 of their last 10 games overall. Schwellenbach ranks impressively in the 97th percentile for Barrel%, indicating strong contact management, and in the 87th percentile for BB%, highlighting his control. At home, he holds a 3.68 ERA with a .233 opponent batting average, backed by a solid 10.23 strikeouts per nine innings.
On the other side, Sonny Gray takes the mound for the Cardinals, boasting a stellar 14-3 record on NRFI bets this season. He faces a Braves team that has struggled, being held scoreless in 72% of their first innings this season and in 8 of their last 10 games overall. The Braves rank near the bottom in offensive metrics against right-handed pitchers over the last month, sitting 29th in wRC+ and 30th in OBP. Additionally, they have the third highest strikeout rate against righties. Gray himself ranks in the 75th percentile for expected ERA (xERA), the 91st percentile in strikeout percentage (K%), and the 78th percentile in walk percentage (BB%) on the season, underscoring his effectiveness on the mound.
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