Democrat Presidential Polls & Probabilities: Who’s Really Ahead?

We may be a year out from the 2016 presidential election and, as Republican candidate Lindsey Graham put it, the race for nomination is like a baseball game and there are still plenty of innings left. The second Democratic debate took place last week with candidates Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and Martin O'Malley on stage. With only three Democratic candidates left, the race has become more focused on catching up to Clinton by pointing out her mistakes than turning the attention to what each candidate has to offer. As Harry Enton points out in reference to the book, The Party Decides, some races for the nomination are more predictable than others based on one candidate "winning" before the first primary in Iowa even begins, such as the current competition stands with Clinton as the leader. Although Clinton (53.8) does stand at a pretty comfortable lead according to Real Clear Politics Iowa polling averages compared to Sanders (29.8) and O'Malley (4.5), Endorsements and where bettors are placing their money in prediction markets are also strong indicators of who will ultimately get on the ballot. While comparing polls with prediction markets for the the Republicans reveals two completely different leaders, with Trump leading polls and Rubio leading in prediction markets, there is no discrepancy between the Democratic stats. In fact, polls show Clinton is winning by a lot and prediction markets prove there is virtually no competition at all—Clinton is no doubt the front-runner. Click to the right for more information on the candidates and where they stand in Predict Wise's betting averages. (Getty)


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