Democratic Polls for Jan. 27: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire

Bernie Sanders, seen here before addressing a union audience, is close in the Iowa polls and ahead in New Hampshire. (Getty)

We’re just five days from the Iowa caucus, and with the last chance to impress Iowa voters behind us, it’s all up to the caucus-goers to decide what recent polls are showing to be a tight race. Hillary Clinton maintains the national polling lead, according to RealClearPolitics, but Bernie Sanders is taking the Iowa lead in some recent polls, with Clinton holding on in others. Despite these tight margins, the betting markets (according to PredictWise) and Iowa FiveThirtyEight forecasts continue to favor Hillary. Sanders continues his hold on New Hampshire polls.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

Iowa

Hillary Clinton, here at CNN’s Iowa Town Hall Forum, has seen her airtight lead in the state all but vanish. (Getty)

Two new polls, with two very different results, were released on Monday and Wednesday. A Quinnipiac poll shows Sanders with 4 points over Clinton, 49 percent to 45 percent. The poll also might ease concerns about Sanders’s “electability:” while Sanders in typical fashion won among “very liberal” voters, he stayed within 1 point among those who described themselves as “moderate” or “conservative,” with 46 percent to Clinton’s 47. “Moderately liberal” voters still backed Clinton. In the Fox News poll, however, Clinton had a 6-point, 48-42 percent lead over Sanders. Clinton also has a 10-point lead, 79 percent to 69 percent, in the share of their voters who are completely decided, meaning that Sanders has far less room to grow than Clinton.

A critical result from both polls: O’Malley polls at 3 percent in the Fox News poll and 4 percent in the Quinnipiac poll. Since Iowa caucus-goers must choose another candidate if their preference pulls less than 15 percent of the caucus, a pool of voters that could put Sanders within Fox News’s margin of error or completely erase Hillary’s Quinnipiac deficit are predicted to be in flux on caucus night.

In polling averages provided by RealClearPolitics, Sanders takes a 0.2-point lead, 46 to 45.8, with O’Malley at 4.3 percent.

Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

• Bernie Sanders: 46%
• Hillary Clinton: 45.8%
• Martin O’Malley: 4.3%

FiveThirtyEight, which utilizes factors beyond polls in its “polls-plus” predictions, actually increased Hillary Clinton’s Iowa chances to 79 percent, though it’s still off the 85 she carried for most of the month and hasn’t factored in the Quinnipiac poll. Sanders is at 21 percent, with O’Malley at less than 1 percent. (Due to rounding, the sum of the averages exceeds 100.) Its polls-only forecast, which doesn’t use extra factors but weights the polls according to methodology and past accuracy, gives Clinton a 67 percent chance to win the primary, with Sanders at 33, well above her RealClearPolitics lead.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast for Iowa

Click the “next page” button below for a breakdown of New Hampshire and national polls, as well as a look at the Democratic primary schedule.

New Hampshire

Martin O’Malley, here in South Carolina, is a long shot for either of the first two states and in the national race. (Getty)

If the polling holds out, New Hampshire is Sanders’s to lose. A new Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University poll shows Sanders with a 16-point lead, 55 percent to 39 percent, with O’Malley taking 2. It’s the third poll in a week to show a Sanders lead of at least 15 points, and of the seven polls making up the RealClearPolitics New Hampshire average, Sanders leads six by more than the margin of error, with the seventh giving Sanders a smaller lead.

Sanders leads in the RealClearPolitics aggregation of recent polls by 12.8 points, with 52.4 percent to Clinton’s 39.6, with O’Malley holding 2.6 percent.

New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

• Bernie Sanders: 53.3%
• Hillary Clinton: 38.6%
• Martin O’Malley: 2.6%

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast, favors Sanders 69 percent to 31 percent. In their polls-only model, Sanders rises to an 89 percent favorite, compared to Clinton’s 11.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast for New Hampshire

The Rest of the Country

Former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay claims federal investigators are “ready to indict” Hillary Clinton. (Getty)

Three new national polls came out, all showing double-digit leads for Clinton. The ABC/Washington Post poll shows a 55-36 (19-point) advantage over Sanders, while CNN/ORC gives 14 points (52-38) and Fox News is at 12 points (49-37).

The RealClearPolitics averages update to include the latest poll shows Clinton’s lead at 13.2 points at 51.2 percent, with Sanders taking 38 and O’Malley taking 2.2.

National Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

• Hillary Clinton: 52.5%
• Bernie Sanders: 37.2%
• Martin O’Malley: 2.2%

The betting markets aggregated by PredictWise show Clinton at an 81 percent favorite to win the Democratic nomination, with Sanders at 19 percent and Martin O’Malley off the board.

News of the Day

Democratic Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

Wisconsin: February 11, PBS

Florida: March 9, Univision

Iowa: February 1

New Hampshire: February 9

Nevada: February 20

South Carolina: February 27

Super Tuesday (Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia): March 1

Kansas, Louisiana: March 5

Maine: March 6

Michigan, Mississippi, Democrats Abroad: March 8

Northern Mariana Islands: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: March 15

Arizona, Idaho, Utah: March 22

Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: March 26

Wisconsin: April 5

Wyoming: April 9

New York: April 19

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

West Virginia: May 10

Kentucky, Oregon: May 17

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota: June 7

Washington, D.C.: June 14

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