Democratic Polls for Jan. 30: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire

Hillary Clinton campaigns with husband and former President Bill in a campaign event in Iowa, where she’s polling slightly ahead of Bernie Sanders. (Getty)

The Iowa caucus is Monday, when the caucus-goers will decide what recent polls are showing to be a tight race. Hillary Clinton maintains the national polling lead, according to RealClearPolitics, but Bernie Sanders is on her heels in Iowa. Despite these tight margins, the betting markets (according to PredictWise) and Iowa FiveThirtyEight forecasts continue to favor Hillary. Sanders continues his hold on New Hampshire polls.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

Iowa

Bernie Sanders signs autographs in Iowa, where he trails by single digits. (Getty)

Two new polls, from Public Policy Polling and NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist, show uncomfortably small leads for Clinton. Public Policy Polling shows Clinton at an 8-point lead over Sanders, 48-40, with Martin O’Malley taking 7 percent, while the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll narrows that advantage to 3, 48-45, with 3 for O’Malley. A critical result from both polls: Iowa caucus-goers must choose another candidate if their preference pulls less than 15 percent of the caucus. That means that, if either of these polls are correct, Sanders could get within the margin of error in one poll and even in another if his caucus-goers convince enough of O’Malley’s supporters on Monday.

In polling averages provided by RealClearPolitics, Clinton takes a 2.5-point lead, 46.8 to 44.3, with O’Malley at 4.3 percent.

Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

• Hillary Clinton: 46.8%
• Bernie Sanders: 44.3%
• Martin O’Malley: 4.3%

FiveThirtyEight, which utilizes factors beyond polls in its “polls-plus” predictions, actually increased Hillary Clinton’s Iowa chances to 79 percent. Sanders is at 21 percent, with O’Malley at less than 1 percent. (Due to rounding, the sum of the averages exceeds 100.) Its polls-only forecast, which doesn’t use extra factors but weights the polls according to methodology and past accuracy, gives Clinton a 72 percent chance to win the primary, with Sanders at 28, well above her RealClearPolitics lead.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast for Iowa

Click the “next page” button below for a breakdown of New Hampshire and national polls, as well as a look at the Democratic primary schedule.

New Hampshire

Martin O’Malley, here meeting supporters in Iowa, trails by a wide margin nationally and in the first two states.

Two new polls cut Sanders’s double-digit lead from last week to striking distance for Clinton. Emerson College puts Sanders at an 8-point lead, 52-44, while American Research Group gives Sanders a 7-point 49-42 lead. Both polls show O’Malley at just 3 percent.

While these polls are significantly tighter than last week’s 14-to-16-point advantages for Sanders, he still leads in the RealClearPolitics aggregation of recent polls by 14.3 points, with 53.7 percent to Clinton’s 39.6, with O’Malley holding 2.6 percent.

New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

• Bernie Sanders: 53.3%
• Hillary Clinton: 38.6%
• Martin O’Malley: 2.9%

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast favors Sanders 75 percent to 25 percent. In their polls-only model, Sanders rises to an 93 percent favorite, compared to Clinton’s 7.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast for New Hampshire

The Rest of the Country

Clinton aide Huma Abedin, here testifying at a House Committee on Benghazi hearing, was Clinton’s Deputy Chief of Staff during Clinton’s time as Secretary of State and may be implicated in her email scandal, according to California Representative Darrell Issa. (Getty)

A new national poll from Investors Business Daily came out Friday showing a 12-point lead for Clinton. This is in keeping with most national polls since the campaign began, and is not particularly predictive information: national polls include voters that won’t cast a ballot or head to the caucus for as many as five months, and a lot can change between now and then.

The RealClearPolitics averages update to include the latest poll shows Clinton’s lead at 14.4 points at 51.6 percent, with Sanders taking 37.2 and O’Malley taking 2.2.

National Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

• Hillary Clinton: 51.6%
• Bernie Sanders: 37.2%
• Martin O’Malley: 2.2%

The betting markets aggregated by PredictWise show Clinton at an 82 percent favorite to win the Democratic nomination, with Sanders at 17 percent and Martin O’Malley off the board.

News of the Day

Democratic Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

Wisconsin: February 11, PBS

Florida: March 9, Univision

Iowa: February 1

New Hampshire: February 9

Nevada: February 20

South Carolina: February 27

Super Tuesday (Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia): March 1

Kansas, Louisiana: March 5

Maine: March 6

Michigan, Mississippi, Democrats Abroad: March 8

Northern Mariana Islands: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: March 15

Arizona, Idaho, Utah: March 22

Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: March 26

Wisconsin: April 5

Wyoming: April 9

New York: April 19

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

West Virginia: May 10

Kentucky, Oregon: May 17

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota: June 7

Washington, D.C.: June 14

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