GOP Polls for Jan. 14: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire

Trump, speaking in Cedar Falls, Iowa, has closed the gap in that state and remains the leader nationally and in New Hampshire. (Getty)

We’re just 17 days from the Iowa caucus, and new polls are shaking up the picture of the race. One of the nation’s most reliable polls shows Ted Cruz’s lead on Donald Trump fading in Iowa, with Marco Rubio third. Trump continues to lead in New Hampshire and nationally, with Cruz running second nationally and Rubio leading a wide-open runner-up field in New Hampshire.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

Iowa

Ted Cruz, here campaigning in South Carolina, has seen his Iowa lead slip. (Getty)

The Des Moines Register poll released Wednesday shows that Cruz maintains a 3-point lead over Trump, 25 percent to 22 percent, with Rubio taking 12 percent and Ben Carson 11. A new Gravis poll, however, has Trump ahead of Cruz by 6 percent, 34 to 28 percent, with all other competitors in single digits. This pushes the polling averages collected by RealClearPolitics into a Trump lead of 27.3 percent, with Cruz trailing at 26.9 percent, Rubio at 11.9 and Ben Carson at 9.

Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

The FiveThirtyEight model, which weights polls by methodology and accuracy, still favors Cruz, at 51 percent, to 29 percent for Trump and 14 percent for Rubio.

FiveThirtyEight Model

The betting markets as aggregated by PredictWise have reacted to the Gravis poll with a noticeable drop for Cruz, down from 76 percent to 63 percent. Trump rises to 28 percent from 18, with Marco Rubio at 7 percent and Ben Carson at 1.

New Hampshire

Chris Christie continues to poll strongly in New Hampshire. (Getty)

With no new New Hampshire polls released Thursday RealClearPolitics averages are unchanged, showing Trump with a 17-point lead over Rubio, 30.2 percent to 13.2 percent, with Kasich third at 11.2, Cruz at 10.8, Chris Christie at 9.5, and Jeb Bush at 8.7. Huffpost Pollster, which did not include the NH1/Reach poll, has Trump with 29.1 percent to Rubio’s 14.2 percent, with Cruz at 11.9, Christie at 11.3, Kasich at 10.5, and Bush at 7.8.

New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

FiveThirtyEight is also favoring Trump, offering a 39 percent chance that he takes the state to 21 percent for Rubio, 13 percent for Cruz, 11 percent for Kasich and 7 percent for Christie.

FiveThirtyEight Model

The PredictWise betting markets favor Trump in New Hampshire at 57 percent, up from 49. Rubio is at 14 percent, followed by Christie at 8.

Click the “next page” button below for a breakdown of the national polls and a look at the GOP primary schedule.

The Rest of the Country

Marco Rubio, seen here in South Carolina, remains the betting co-favorite.

A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday shows Trump with a 13-point national lead over Cruz at 33 percent to 20 percent, with Rubio at 13 and Ben Carson at 12 percent. These numbers are a bit below Trump’s RealClearPolitics averages, which show a 34.5 percent share and a 15.2-point lead over Cruz’s 19.3 percent, with Rubio at 11.8 and Carson at 9.

National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)

In PredictWise’s aggregation of the betting markets, Trump remains even with longtime leader Rubio, each taking 33 percent. Cruz continues his slide, falling from 22 to 20 percent. Bush holds at 10, and Christie rounds out the board at 3 percent.

News of the Day

GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

Iowa: January 28, Fox News

New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News

South Carolina: February 13, CBS

Texas: February 26, NBC/Telemundo/National Review

Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

Primary Schedule
Iowa: February 1

New Hampshire: February 9

South Carolina: February 20

Nevada: February 23

Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

Puerto Rico: March 6

Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

Virgin Islands: March 19

American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

Wisconsin: April 5

New York: April 19

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

Oregon: May 17

Washington: May 24

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7