The Des Moines Register poll conducted by Seltzer and Company has a reputation for developing the most accurate picture of the race. The poll has FiveThirtyEight’s highest rating for accuracy and often spots trends predictive of the actual outcome long before other polls. When their first poll for 2016 dropped on Wednesday, it offered a reliable prediction of a tumultuous race.
According to the new Des Moines Register poll, Ted Crux continues to lead main rival Donald Trump 25 to 22 percent, contradicting recent polls that had Trump retaking the lead. Marco Rubio comes in third at 12 percent, Ben Carson in fourth at 11 percent, and the rest of the field in single digits. Notable among the back of the pack: Rand Paul, who is is protesting his relegation to the undercard debate on Thursday, comes in fifth in Iowa in a very reliable poll, thus meeting the criteria for the main stage.
Des Moines Register Poll