GOP Polls for Jan. 17: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire

Donald Trump, speaking at the Tea Party Convention in South Carolina, leads nationally, in new Hampshire, and in select Iowa polls. (Getty)

We’re just 14 days from the Iowa caucus, and each day is critical. There are no new polls to register the impact of Thursday’s debate. Recent polls show Ted Cruz with a small advantage over Donald Trump in Iowa and Marco Rubio third. Trump and Cruz flip nationally, with New Hampshire showing a strong Trump lead and Rubio fending off Chris Chrstie and John Kasich for runner-up status in New Hampshire.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

Iowa

Ted Cruz, speaking in South Carolina here, leads the Des Moines Register Iowa Poll by a slim margin. (Getty)

The Des Moines Register Iowa Poll show a 3-point Cruz lead over Trump, 25 percent to 22 percent, with Rubio at 12 percent and Ben Carson at 11. While the poll is renowned for is accuracy, it’s important to note that two other recent polls from the same period, by Gravis and Public Policy Polling, both favor Trump. The RealClearPolitics averages show Trump with a 0.4-point lead over Cruz at 27.3 to 26.9 percent, with Rubio running third at 11.9 percent and Carson fourth at 9.

Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

FiveThirtyEight, which takes more than polls into account when forecasting, shows Cruz with a 51 percent chance of taking Iowa, with Trump at 29 percent and Rubio at 14.

FiveThirtyEight Model

The betting markets as aggregated by Predictwise shows some steadying for Cruz, who is at 62 after a roller-coaster week where he started at 79, fell as low as 58, then recovered to 63 Saturday. Trump rose from 31 to 33 percent, with Rubio taking 4 percent and Carson tying Jeb Bush at 1.

New Hampshire

Marco Rubio, seen here at Thursday’s debate, is leading the runner-up race in New Hampshire polling and betting.

With the most recent New Hampshire poll released January 11, the RealClearPolitics averages continue to show Trump with a 17.6-point lead over Rubio, 30.4 percent to 12.8 percent, with Kasich third at 11.2, Cruz at 11, Chris Christie at 9.2, and Jeb Bush at 8.4. Huffpost Pollster, which did not include a poll by NH1/Reach, has Trump with 29.1 percent to Rubio’s 14.2 percent, with Cruz at 11.9, Christie at 11.3, Kasich at 10.5, and Bush at 7.8.

New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 39 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Rubio at 21 percent, Cruz at 13, and Kasich at 11. Significantly, Trump still has a solid projection even after FiveThirtyEight controls 20 percent for his assumed loss in Iowa.

FiveThirtyEight Model

The PredictWise betting averages continue to show a Trump ascendancy, as he rises from his previous high of 56 percent to 60. Rubio dips one point to 13 percent, then Cruz at 11 percent, with everyone else in single digits.

Click below for a national polling roundup and a discussion of today’s news.

The Rest of the Country

Donald Trump and Marco Rubio, here at Thursday’s debate, lead the betting markets for the nomination. (Getty)

Thursday’s national poll shows Trump with a 13-point lead over Cruz at 33 percent to 20 percent, with Rubio polling at 13 percent and Ben Carson 12. This slightly lowers Trump’s RealClearPolitics average of 34.5 percent, to Cruz’s 19.3, Rubio’s 11.8, and Carson’s 9. Remember, though, that national polls feature voters who won’t formally make their selection for some time, at which point their current choice may not still be in the race. National polls are usually seen as non-predictive for this reason.

National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)

The PredictWise betting aggregation show a continued Trump climb, rising to 39 percent. After dipping from 34 to 32 percent Saturday, onetime frontrunner Rubio drops again to 30 percent today, in what could be a grim trend. Cruz runs third with 18 percent, with Bush holding 10 percent and Christie 3.

News of the Day

GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

Iowa: January 28, Fox News

New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News

South Carolina: February 13, CBS

Texas: February 26, NBC/Telemundo/National Review

Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

Primary Schedule
Iowa: February 1

New Hampshire: February 9

South Carolina: February 20

Nevada: February 23

Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

Puerto Rico: March 6

Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

Virgin Islands: March 19

American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

Wisconsin: April 5

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

Oregon: May 17

Washington: May 24

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7