GOP Polls for Jan. 18: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire

Donald Trump, speaking at the Tea Party Convention in South Carolina, leads nationally, in new Hampshire, and in select Iowa polls. (Getty)

We’re now just 13 days from the Iowa caucus, the opening contest to determine the GOP nominee. Recent polls cast a mixed message in Iowa: The most reliable poll shows Ted Cruz leading Donald Trump by a tiny margin in Iowa, with Marco Rubio third. Trump and Cruz flip nationally, with New Hampshire showing a strong Trump lead and Rubio tenuously holding runner-up status in New Hampshire.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

Iowa

Ted Cruz, here campaigning in South Carolina, leads in select Iowa polls. (Getty)

The Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, known as Iowa’s most accurate, shows a 3-point Cruz lead over Trump, 25 percent to 22 percent, with Rubio at 12 percent and Ben Carson at 11. Two other recent polls from the same period, by Gravis and Public Policy Polling, both favor Trump. The RealClearPolitics averages show Trump with a 0.4-point lead over Cruz at 27.3 to 26.9 percent, with Rubio running third at 11.9 percent and Carson fourth at 9.

Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

FiveThirtyEight, which takes more than polls into account for its “polls-plus” forecast, shows Cruz with a 51 percent chance of taking Iowa, with Trump at 29 percent and Rubio at 14.

FiveThirtyEight Model

The betting markets as aggregated by Predictwise shows some steadying for Cruz, who is at 62 after a roller-coaster week where he started at 79, fell as low as 58, then recovered to 63 Saturday. Trump is also steady, down just 2 to 31 percent, with Rubio taking 4 percent and Carson tying Jeb Bush at 3.

New Hampshire

Marco Rubio, seen here in South Carolina, is running second to Trump in South Carolina. (Getty)

With the most recent New Hampshire poll released January 11, the RealClearPolitics averages continue to show Trump with a 17.6-point lead over Rubio, 30.4 percent to 12.8 percent, with Kasich third at 11.2, Cruz at 11, Chris Christie at 9.2, and Jeb Bush at 8.4. Huffpost Pollster, which did not include a poll by NH1/Reach, has Trump with 29.1 percent to Rubio’s 14.2 percent, with Cruz at 11.9, Christie at 11.3, Kasich at 10.5, and Bush at 7.8.

New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast gives Trump a 39 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Rubio at 21 percent, Cruz at 13, and Kasich at 11. Significantly, Trump still has a solid projection even after FiveThirtyEight controls 20 percent for his assumed loss in Iowa.

FiveThirtyEight Model

In the PredictWise betting averages, Trump rises from 60 to 61 percent, marking a 15-percent half-month surge from 46 percent. Rubio rises to 14 percent from 13, with everyone else in single digits.

Click below for a national polling roundup and a discussion of today’s news.

The Rest of the Country

Jeb Bush gained the endorsement of South Carolina Senator and former candidate Lindsey Graham, leading to a noticeable upward swing in the polls. (Getty)

Thursday’s national poll shows Trump with a 13-point lead over Cruz at 33 percent to 20 percent, with Rubio polling at 13 percent and Ben Carson 12. This slightly lowers Trump’s RealClearPolitics average of 34.5 percent, to Cruz’s 19.3, Rubio’s 11.8, and Carson’s 9. Remember, though, that national polls feature voters who won’t formally make their selection for some time, at which point their current choice may not still be in the race. National polls are usually seen as non-predictive for this reason.

National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)

Although the same disclaimer applies to state polls for still-distant primaries as national polls, new South Carolina and Utah polls offer some interesting insights.

In the South Carolina poll, Jeb Bush has risen as high as third, trailing frontrunner Trump’s 32 percent share and Ted Cruz’s 18 percent at 13. Bush had not placed higher than sixth in previous South Carolina polling. Utah’s poll, meanwhile, shows a full 18 percent of voters undecided, that answer good for third behind Cruz’s 18 percent and Trump’s 17 and just edging Rubio and Carson at 15, meaning that the uncertainty in the GOP race could last beyond the first few primaries.

After a sustained Trump rise, the PredictWise betting aggregation show him holding steady at, 37 percent, down from 39 percent from Sunday. Rubio, who had dipped 4 percent in two days, rises slightly to 32 percent. Cruz holds third with 19 percent, with Bush holding 9 percent and Christie 3.

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