Donald Trump, speaking at the Tea Party Convention in South Carolina, leads nationally, in new Hampshire, and in select Iowa polls. (Getty)
We’re now just 13 days from the Iowa caucus, the opening contest to determine the GOP nominee. Recent polls cast a mixed message in Iowa: The most reliable poll shows Ted Cruz leading Donald Trump by a tiny margin in Iowa, with Marco Rubio third. Trump and Cruz flip nationally, with New Hampshire showing a strong Trump lead and Rubio tenuously holding runner-up status in New Hampshire.
Here’s a look at the state of the race:
Iowa
Ted Cruz, here campaigning in South Carolina, leads in select Iowa polls. (Getty)
The Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, known as Iowa’s most accurate, shows a 3-point Cruz lead over Trump, 25 percent to 22 percent, with Rubio at 12 percent and Ben Carson at 11. Two other recent polls from the same period, by Gravis and Public Policy Polling, both favor Trump. The RealClearPolitics averages show Trump with a 0.4-point lead over Cruz at 27.3 to 26.9 percent, with Rubio running third at 11.9 percent and Carson fourth at 9.
Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
FiveThirtyEight, which takes more than polls into account for its “polls-plus” forecast, shows Cruz with a 51 percent chance of taking Iowa, with Trump at 29 percent and Rubio at 14.
FiveThirtyEight Model
The betting markets as aggregated by Predictwise shows some steadying for Cruz, who is at 62 after a roller-coaster week where he started at 79, fell as low as 58, then recovered to 63 Saturday. Trump is also steady, down just 2 to 31 percent, with Rubio taking 4 percent and Carson tying Jeb Bush at 3.
New Hampshire
Marco Rubio, seen here in South Carolina, is running second to Trump in South Carolina. (Getty)
With the most recent New Hampshire poll released January 11, the RealClearPolitics averages continue to show Trump with a 17.6-point lead over Rubio, 30.4 percent to 12.8 percent, with Kasich third at 11.2, Cruz at 11, Chris Christie at 9.2, and Jeb Bush at 8.4. Huffpost Pollster, which did not include a poll by NH1/Reach, has Trump with 29.1 percent to Rubio’s 14.2 percent, with Cruz at 11.9, Christie at 11.3, Kasich at 10.5, and Bush at 7.8.
New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast gives Trump a 39 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Rubio at 21 percent, Cruz at 13, and Kasich at 11. Significantly, Trump still has a solid projection even after FiveThirtyEight controls 20 percent for his assumed loss in Iowa.
FiveThirtyEight Model
In the PredictWise betting averages, Trump rises from 60 to 61 percent, marking a 15-percent half-month surge from 46 percent. Rubio rises to 14 percent from 13, with everyone else in single digits.
Click below for a national polling roundup and a discussion of today’s news.