GOP Polls for Jan. 19: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire

Donald Trump, speaking at Liberty University in this photo, is on top of national, New Hampshire, and select Iowa polls.

Just 12 days separate us from the Iowa caucus, first stop on the long road to the GOP convention. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump each have polling leads in Iowa, though Cruz’s lead is in the more highly regarded poll.; meanwhile, Marco Rubio runs third. Trump leads nationally, with New Hampshire showing a strong Trump lead and Rubio losing ground in the runner-up race to John Kasich in New Hampshire.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

Iowa

Ted Cruz, speaking in South Carolina here, leads the Des Moines Register Iowa Poll.

The Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows a 3-point Cruz lead over Trump, 25 percent to 22 percent, with Rubio at 12 percent and Ben Carson at 11. Though it’s known as Iowa’s most accurate poll, two others from the same period, by Gravis and Public Policy Polling, both favor Trump.

An interesting result from recent Iowa polling: Cruz appears to do better in larger polls. ARG and Gravis, which sampled 400 and 422 voters, Trump had leads of 6 and 4 points. However, Public Policy Polling (530) has Cruz just 2 points back and the Des Moines register has him up 3.

The RealClearPolitics averages show Trump with a 0.4-point lead over Cruz at 27.3 to 26.9 percent, with Rubio running third at 11.9 percent and Carson fourth at 9.

b>Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

FiveThirtyEight, which takes more than polls into account for its “polls-plus” forecast, shows Cruz with a 51 percent chance of taking Iowa, with Trump at 29 percent and Rubio at 14. The polls-only forecast, which weights polls based on methodology and past accuracy, favors Trump with a 44 percent chance, compared to 42 for Cruz and single digits for everyone else.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Model

The betting markets as aggregated by Predictwise shows Cruz holding steady with 63 percent, well off his high of 79 but above his January low of 58. Trump is also steady at 31 percent, with Rubio taking 5 percent and Jeb Bush at 1.

Click the “next page” button below for New Hampshire and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.

New Hampshire

Marco Rubio, here arguing with Chris Christie at the Fox Business debate, slipped in the latest New Hampshire poll. (Getty)

American Research Group released a poll Tuesday showing Trump with 27 percent, his lowest totals in months. Another surprise: the poll’s runner-up. Ohio governor John Kasich trails by just 7 points at 20 percent, with Marco Rubio at 10 and everyone else in single digits. These are troubling numbers for Rubio, who finishes third to Kasich for the second consecutive poll.

This new poll shifts the RealClearPolitics averages significantly. While Trump continues to lead with a 31 percent of the vote, Kasich now nudges Rubio into third, 13.3 to 11.5, with Kasich third at 11.2, Cruz at 11.3 and Chris Christie tied with Bush at 8.3. Huffpost Pollster, which did not include a poll by NH1/Reach, has Trump with 29.1 percent to Rubio’s 14.2 percent, with Cruz at 11.9, Christie at 11.3, Kasich at 10.5, and Bush at 7.8.

New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast gives Trump a 39 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Rubio at 21 percent, Cruz at 13, and Kasich at 11. Significantly, Trump still has a solid projection even after FiveThirtyEight controls 20 percent for his assumed loss in Iowa. Their polls-only forecast bumps Trump to 56 percent, with Rubio at 12 and the rest of the field in single digits.

FiveThirtyEight Model

In the PredictWise betting averages, Trump rises from 61 to 62 percent, marking a 16-percent half-month surge from opening the year at 46 percent. Rubio holds at 14 percent, with Ted Cruz at 10 and everyone else in single digits.

The Rest of the Country

The GOP field at the most recent debates. (Getty)

Tuesday’s NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll shows Trump leading at 38 percent, Ted Cruz at 21 percent, Marco Rubio at 11 percent and Ben Carson at 8 percent . Remember, though, that national polls feature voters who won’t formally make their selection for some time, at which point their current choice may not still be in the race. National polls are usually seen as non-predictive for this reason.

The RealClearPolitics polling averages have not yet updated to include this poll, and still give Trump a 15.2-point lead at 34.5 percent, with Cruz taking 19.3 percent, Rubio at 11.8 and Ben Carson at 9.

National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)

Although the same disclaimer applies to state polls for still-distant primaries as national polls, Monday’s South Carolina and Utah polls, as well as Tuesday’s Florida and Georgia polls offer some interesting insights.

In the South Carolina and Florida polls, Jeb Bush has risen as high as third, trailing frontrunner Trump’s 32 percent share and Ted Cruz’s 18 percent at 13. Bush had not placed higher than sixth in previous South Carolina polling. Utah’s poll, meanwhile, shows a full 18 percent of voters undecided, that answer good for third behind Cruz’s 18 percent and Trump’s 17 and just edging Rubio and Carson at 15, meaning that the uncertainty in the GOP race could last beyond the first few primaries. In Georgia, meanwhile, Cruz has gained 7 percent as Trump fell 10 from the most recent poll; the momentum that put Cruz at the top of Iowa last month may carry over into later primaries.

After a sustained Trump rise, the PredictWise betting aggregation show him holding steady at 37 percent, down from 39 percent from Sunday. Rubio drops one point to 31 percent, Cruz holds third with 19 percent, with Bush taking 10 percent and Christie 3.

News of the Day

GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

Iowa: January 28, Fox News

New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News

South Carolina: February 13, CBS

Texas: February 26, CNN

Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

Primary Schedule
Iowa: February 1

New Hampshire: February 9

South Carolina: February 20

Nevada: February 23

Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

Puerto Rico: March 6

Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

Virgin Islands: March 19

American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

Wisconsin: April 5

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

Oregon: May 17

Washington: May 24

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7