GOP Polls for Jan. 23: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire

Ted Cruz, seen here at the Capitol, is the co-frontrunner in Iowa and second to Donald Trump nationally. (Getty)

There are only eight days until we kick off the primary season with the Iowa caucus. New polls by Fox News and Reuters/Ipsos show a commanding lead for Donald Trump despite major conservative opposition. Trump is also gaining, and taking the lead, in Iowa, with former frontrunner Ted Cruz still putting up a strong challenge. Marco Rubio, once the betting favorite nationally and the longtime New Hampshire polling runner-up, is slipping in New Hampshire polls, including the latest. Trump retains the New Hampshire lead despite surges from John Kasich and Cruz in polls released Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Trump also holds the national betting lead, as aggregated by PredictWise.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

Iowa

Volunteers in Iowa work the phones for Ted Cruz, who is losing the lead in polls there. (Getty)

The most recent poll by CNN shows Trump with an 11-point lead on Cruz, 37 percent to 26 percent, with Rubio the only other candidate in double digits at 14. While this poll is an outlier, it is the first to include a significant period following Iowa governor Terry Branstad’s announced opposition to Cruz and former Alaska governor and Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Trump. A potentially critical result from deeper in the poll: while CNN controlled for “likely caucus-goers,” when only including those who recently had caucused, Cruz led 30 percent to Trump’s 28.

The RealClearPolitics averages show Trump with a 2.6-point lead over Cruz at 29 to 26.4 percent, with Rubio running third at 11 percent and Carson fourth at 8.5.

Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

FiveThirtyEight, which takes more than polls into account for its “polls-plus” forecast, shows Cruz dropping to a 48 percent chance of taking Iowa, still the favorite but no longer odds-on. Trump climbs to 36 percent, with Rubio rising to 11. The polls-only forecast, which weights polls based on methodology and past accuracy, favors Trump with a 50 percent chance, compared to 39 for Cruz and single digits for everyone else.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Model

In the as aggregated by Predictwise, Trump is the odds-on favorite at 57 percent. Cruz drops to 38 percent, with Rubio taking 4 percent and Carson and Jeb Bush tied with 1.

Click the “next page” button below for New Hampshire and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.

New Hampshire

John Kasich surged ahead in a poll earlier this week but hasn’t repeated that success in subsequent polls. (Getty)

Thursday’s CNN poll shows Trump opening up a 20-point lead on Cruz, 34 to 14 percent, with Rubio and Bush tying for third at 10. This poll contradicts an American Research Group poll from the same period, showing Ohio governor John Kasich pulling to within 7 of Trump, 27 percent to 20 percent. The forecasters at FiveThirtyEight, for the record, give American Research Group a C- and CNN’s polling partners at the University of New Hampshire a B.

According to RealClearPolitics polling averages, Trump has a 18.6-point lead with 32 percent of the vote, with Kasich at 13.4, Cruz third at 11.4, and Rubio at 10. Huffpost Pollster, which did not include a poll by NH1/Reach, has Trump with 30.8 percent to Rubio’s 12.4 percent, with Kasich at 12.2, Cruz at 11.3, and Christie at 9.6.

New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast gives Trump a 46 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Rubio at 17 percent, Kasich at 14, and Cruz at 13. Since FiveThirtyEight controls 20 percent for previous primary results, Trump’s good news in the previous state can only help. Their polls-only forecast bumps Trump to 62 percent, with no one else in double digits.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

In the PredictWise betting averages, Trump is a 69 percent favorite, while Kasich slips out of single digits with 9, tied with Marco Rubio for second.

The Rest of the Country

Senator and 2008 Republican nominee John McCain announced that he will not endorse a candidate during the 2016 primary race. (Getty)

A new national poll from Fox News shows Trump with a 14-point lead over Cruz, 34 percent to 20 percent, with Marco Rubio taking 11. Reuters/Ipsos was even more favorable, giving Trump 40.6 percent of the vote, a 30.1-point lead over Cruz’s 10.5 percent, with Carson at 9.7, Jeb Bush at 9.2 and Marco Rubio at 7.2.

The RealClearPolitics polling averages did not include the Reuters/Ipsos poll, but the Fox News poll shifts the averages to give Trump a 15.8-point lead at 34.6 percent, with Cruz taking 18.8 percent and Rubio at 11.6.

34.6 18.8 11.2 Trump +15.8

National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)

The PredictWise betting aggregation shows Trump at a new high of 45 percent, with former frontrunner Rubio at 30 percent and Cruz holding third with 12 percent. Jeb Bush takes 10 percent, with Chris Christie at 2 and John Kasich at 1.

News of the Day

GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

Iowa: January 28, Fox News

New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News

South Carolina: February 13, CBS

Texas: February 26, CNN

Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

Primary Schedule
Iowa: February 1

New Hampshire: February 9

South Carolina: February 20

Nevada: February 23

Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

Puerto Rico: March 6

Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

Virgin Islands: March 19

American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

Wisconsin: April 5

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

Oregon: May 17

Washington: May 24

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7

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