GOP Polls for Jan. 29: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire

Donald Trump at his Wounded Warrior Project fundraiser, for which he skipped Thursday’s debate. (Getty)

We’re only two days from kicking off the 2016 primary race in Iowa. While Donald Trump skipped the last chance to impress Iowa voters in favor of his own event, his rivals, including former Iowa frontrunner Ted Cruz vied to make a dent in Trump’s polling lead. We won’t see official polling results from that debate until nearly caucus time, but Trump’s national lead and his big margins in New Hampshire seem unlikely to subside. Trump also holds the national betting lead, as aggregated by PredictWise.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

Iowa

GOP candidates Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz at Thursday’s debate. (Getty)

Though new numbers don’t reflect the debate, they also don’t show Trumps’s lead slowing. Public Policy Polling and NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal show Trump at a 31 and 32 percent share, respectively, 7 and 8 points above Cruz (23/25), with only Rubio above the 15 percent threshold required to contend in Iowa, at 18 percent in the NBC News poll.

The RealClearPolitics averages show Trump with a 6.2-point lead over Cruz at 31.4 to 25.2 percent, with Rubio running third at 14.4 percent.

Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

FiveThirtyEight, which takes more than polls into account for its “polls-plus” forecast, is for the first time favoring Trump, giving him a 48 percent chance of taking Iowa, with Cruz at 41 and Rubio at 10. The polls-only forecast, which weights polls based on methodology and past accuracy, favors Trump with a 59 percent chance, compared to 32 for Cruz and single digits for everyone else.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Model

Trump fell somewhat in the as aggregated by Predictwise, 66 to 62 percent, but Cruz has collapsed from an early January 79 percent to 29, with no one else in double digits.

Click the “next page” button below for New Hampshire and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.

New Hampshire

John Kasich took second in a recent New Hampshire poll, but is still far behind Trump. (Getty)

A new poll by Suffolk University shows a 15-point lead for Trump, 33 percent to 14 for Cruz and John Kasich. Another by Emerson College Polling Society put Jeb Bush at second with 18 percent, still 17 points behind Trump. According to RealClearPolitics polling averages, Trump has an 18.8-point lead with 31.3 percent of the vote, followed by Kasich at 12.5, Cruz at 12, Rubio at 10.7, and Bush at 10.

New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast gives Trump a 65 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Cruz at 15 percent, Rubio at 11 and Kasich at 10. Since FiveThirtyEight controls 20 percent for previous primary results, Trump’s good news in the previous state can only help. Their polls-only forecast bumps Trump to 67 percent, with no one else in double digits.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

In the PredictWise betting averages, Trump rises to 76 percent, with everyone else in single digits.

The Rest of the Country

After relegation to the undercard caused him to boycott the last debate, Rand Paul was brought back to the main stage Thursday. (Getty)

A new national poll from Investors Business Daily gives Trump a 10-point lead over Ted Cruz at 31-21 percent, with Rubio at 10. It’s the smallest Trump lead of any poll in the RealClearPolitics polling average, which shows Trump with a 15.6-point lead at 35.3 percent, with Cruz taking 19.7 percent and Rubio at 10.7.

National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)

The PredictWise betting aggregation shows Trump rising to a new high of 48 percent, with former frontrunner Rubio at 31 percent and Cruz at 10.

News of the Day

GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News

South Carolina: February 13, CBS

Texas: February 26, CNN

Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

Primary Schedule
Iowa: February 1

New Hampshire: February 9

South Carolina: February 20

Nevada: February 23

Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

Puerto Rico: March 6

Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

Virgin Islands: March 19

American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

Wisconsin: April 5

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

Oregon: May 17

Washington: May 24

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7

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