GOP Polls for Jan. 25: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire

Donald Trump, here campaigning in Iowa, leads that state’s most recent polls. (Getty)

There are only six days remaining before the Iowa caucus. Recent polls by Fox News and Reuters/Ipsos show a commanding national lead for Donald Trump despite major conservative opposition. Trump also took the lead in Iowa, with former frontrunner Ted Cruz still putting up a strong challenge. Marco Rubio, once the betting favorite nationally and the longtime New Hampshire polling runner-up, picked up a major endorsement and a major “non-endorsement” in Iowa but is slumping in New Hampshire polls, including the latest. Trump retains the New Hampshire lead in the newest polls in New Hampshire. Trump also holds the national betting lead, as aggregated by PredictWise.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

Iowa

Ted Cruz is losing ground to Donald Trump in the latest polls. (Getty)

A recent poll by CNN shows Trump with an 11-point lead on Cruz, 37 percent to 26 percent, with Rubio the only other candidate in double digits at 14. For Cruz, though, there’s a potentially critical result from deeper in the poll: while CNN controlled for “likely caucus-goers,” when only including those who recently had caucused, Cruz led 30 percent to Trump’s 28. Another recent poll from CBS News/YouGov reports a 5-point lead for Trump, 39 to Cruz’s 34 percent, with 13 for Rubio.

The RealClearPolitics averages show Trump with a 2.6-point lead over Cruz at 29 to 26.4 percent, with Rubio running third at 12.2 percent.

Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

RealClearPolitics also introduced a new feature Monday, comparing recent Iowa poll results with those from previous cycles at this point before the caucus. Six days before the caucus in 2008, Mike Huckabee led Mitt Romney 29 to 26 percent; Huckabee took 34 percent and the victory, while eventual nominee John McCain finished fourth. However, in 2012, eventual Iowa winner Rick Santorum was polling sixth at just 7.7 percent, with Ron Paul in the lead at 22.7 percent; Santorum won with a 24.6 percent share, while eventual nominee Romney finished second with 24.6, roughly in line with polling predictions.

FiveThirtyEight, which takes more than polls into account for its “polls-plus” forecast, shows Cruz dropping to a 48 percent chance of taking Iowa, still the favorite but no longer odds-on. Trump has a 36 percent chance, with Rubio at 11. The polls-only forecast, which weights polls based on methodology and past accuracy, favors Trump with a 50 percent chance, compared to 39 for Cruz and single digits for everyone else.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Model

In the as aggregated by PredictWise, Trump is the odds-on favorite at 66 percent. Cruz drops to 31 percent, with no one else in double digits.

Click the “next page” button below for New Hampshire and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.

New Hampshire

John Kasich pulled 20 percent in one poll last week but hasn’t repeated that success. (Getty)

Recent polls by CBS News/YouGov and Fox News both show substantial leads for Trump, with a crowded runner-up field behind him. With CBS News/YouGov, Trump sits at 34 percent, an 18-point lead over Cruz’s 16 percent, with 14 percent for Rubio and 10 for Ohio governor John Kasich. Fox News has Trump at 31 percent, a 17-point lead over the 14 percent share for Cruz, with Rubio at 13 and Kasich at 9. Either way, the 20-point, runner-up-by-7 showing for Kasich in the American Research Group is looking more and more like an outlier.

According to RealClearPolitics polling averages, Trump has a 18.6-point lead with 32 percent of the vote, with Kasich at 13.4, Cruz third at 11.4, and Rubio at 10.

New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

According to RealClearPolitics polling history, favorites are 1-for-2 in the past two Republican New Hampshire primaries. 15 days before the 2008 New Hampshire primary, eventual New Hampshire winner and nominee was 5.4 points behind then-frontrunner Mitt Romney, 30.4 to 25; McCain came away with a 5.5 point margin of victory, 37-31.5. However, in a 2012 race that more closely resembles Trump’s 19.6-point lead, Mitt Romney’s 17-point polling lead turned into a 16.4-point victory, with New Gingrich finishing fifth after nosing ahead in the polling runner-up. It’s important to note that 15 days before New Hampshire in previous years meant two weeks after Iowa, so the polling samples in 2008 and 2012 are dealing with important information this year’s sample does not have.

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast gives Trump a 46 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Rubio at 14 percent, Kasich at 13, and Cruz at 12. Since FiveThirtyEight controls 20 percent for previous primary results, Trump’s good news in the previous state can only help. Their polls-only forecast bumps Trump to 62 percent, with no one else in double digits.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

In the PredictWise betting averages, Trump climbs to 74 percent,with everyone else in single digits.

The Rest of the Country

Iowa Senator Joni Ernst, here hosting her annual Roast and Ride event, is campaigning with Marco Rubio but remains officially neutral. (Getty)

Saturday’s national poll from Fox News shows Trump with a 14-point lead over Cruz, 34 percent to 20 percent, with Marco Rubio taking 11. Reuters/Ipsos was even more favorable, giving Trump 40.6 percent of the vote, a 30.1-point lead over Cruz’s 10.5 percent, with Carson at 9.7, Jeb Bush at 9.2 and Marco Rubio at 7.2.

The RealClearPolitics polling averages did not include the Reuters/Ipsos poll, but the Fox News poll shifts the averages to give Trump a 15.8-point lead at 34.6 percent, with Cruz taking 18.8 percent and Rubio at 11.6.

National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)

A little polling history: with six days to go before the 2008 and 2012 Iowa caucuses, neither evential nominee was leading national polling, with McCain in third place, 6 points behind leader Rudy Giuliani, and Romney in second, 2.8 points behind Gingrich. However, neither Giuliani nor Gingrich were leading either of the first two state’s polls; Trump leads in both states.

The PredictWise betting aggregation shows Trump at a new high of 47 percent, with former frontrunner Rubio at 30 percent and Jeb Bush tied with Cruz at 10 percent.

News of the Day

GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

Iowa: January 28, Fox News

New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News

South Carolina: February 13, CBS

Texas: February 26, CNN

Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

Primary Schedule
Iowa: February 1

New Hampshire: February 9

South Carolina: February 20

Nevada: February 23

Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

Puerto Rico: March 6

Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

Virgin Islands: March 19

American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

Wisconsin: April 5

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

Oregon: May 17

Washington: May 24

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7

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