GOP Polls for Jan. 24: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire

Donald Trump campaigns in Iowa, where he leads in the latest polls. (Getty)

There are only seven days remaining before the Iowa caucus. Recent polls by Fox News and Reuters/Ipsos show a commanding national lead for Donald Trump despite major conservative opposition. Trump is also gaining, and taking the lead, in Iowa, with former frontrunner Ted Cruz still putting up a strong challenge. Marco Rubio, once the betting favorite nationally and the longtime New Hampshire polling runner-up, picked up a major endorsement in Iowa but is slumping in New Hampshire polls, including the latest. Trump retains the New Hampshire lead in the newest polls in New Hampshire. Trump also holds the national betting lead, as aggregated by PredictWise.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

Iowa

Marco Rubio won the Des Moines Register endorsement but is third in Iowa polls. (Getty)

On Sunday, the Des Moines Register, Iowa’s most prominent paper, endorsed Marco Rubio on Sunday, saying that the Florida Senator had “the potential to chart a new direction for the party, and perhaps the nation, with his message of restoring the American dream.” While five of their last nine endorsements have gone on to the Republican nomination, FiveThirtyEight reports an average 3 percent gain in Iowa vote share between pre-endorsement polls and actual caucus results, which won’t nearly be enough for Rubio.

A recent poll by CNN shows Trump with an 11-point lead on Cruz, 37 percent to 26 percent, with Rubio the only other candidate in double digits at 14. For Cruz, though, there’s a potentially critical result from deeper in the poll: while CNN controlled for “likely caucus-goers,” when only including those who recently had caucused, Cruz led 30 percent to Trump’s 28. Another recent poll from CBS News/YouGov reports a 5-point lead for Trump, 39 to Cruz’s 34 percent, with 13 for Rubio.

The RealClearPolitics averages show Trump with a 2.6-point lead over Cruz at 29 to 26.4 percent, with Rubio running third at 12.2 percent.

Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

FiveThirtyEight, which takes more than polls into account for its “polls-plus” forecast, shows Cruz dropping to a 48 percent chance of taking Iowa, still the favorite but no longer odds-on. Trump has a 36 percent chance, with Rubio at 11. The polls-only forecast, which weights polls based on methodology and past accuracy, favors Trump with a 50 percent chance, compared to 39 for Cruz and single digits for everyone else.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Model

In the as aggregated by Predictwise, Trump is the odds-on favorite at 57 percent. Cruz drops to 33 percent, with no one else in double digits.

Click the “next page” button below for New Hampshire and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.

New Hampshire

Ted Cruz memorabilia sits on a table in New Hampshire, where the Senator is surging in the polls. (Getty)

New polls by CBS News/YouGov and Fox News both show substantial leads for Trump, with a crowded runner-up field behind him. With CBS News/YouGov, Trump sits at 34 percent, an 18-point lead over Cruz’s 16 percent, with 14 percent for Rubio and 10 for Ohio governor John Kasich. Fox News has Trump at 31 percent, a 17-point lead over the 14 percent share for Cruz, with Rubio at 13 and Kasich at 9. Either way, the 20-point, runner-up-by-7 showing for Kasich in the American Research Group is looking more and more like an outlier.

According to RealClearPolitics polling averages, Trump has a 18.6-point lead with 32 percent of the vote, with Kasich at 13.4, Cruz third at 11.4, and Rubio at 10.

New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast gives Trump a 46 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Rubio at 14 percent, Kasich at 13, and Cruz at 12. Since FiveThirtyEight controls 20 percent for previous primary results, Trump’s good news in the previous state can only help. Their polls-only forecast bumps Trump to 62 percent, with no one else in double digits.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

In the PredictWise betting averages, Trump is a 68 percent favorite, while Marco Rubio climbs to 10 percent, the only other candidate in double digits.

The Rest of the Country

Conservative pundit Glenn Beck endorsed Ted Cruz on Saturday. (Getty)

Saturday’s national poll from Fox News shows Trump with a 14-point lead over Cruz, 34 percent to 20 percent, with Marco Rubio taking 11. Reuters/Ipsos was even more favorable, giving Trump 40.6 percent of the vote, a 30.1-point lead over Cruz’s 10.5 percent, with Carson at 9.7, Jeb Bush at 9.2 and Marco Rubio at 7.2.

The RealClearPolitics polling averages did not include the Reuters/Ipsos poll, but the Fox News poll shifts the averages to give Trump a 15.8-point lead at 34.6 percent, with Cruz taking 18.8 percent and Rubio at 11.6.

National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)

The PredictWise betting aggregation shows Trump at a new high of 45 percent, with former frontrunner Rubio at 30 percent and Cruz holding third with 12 percent. Jeb Bush takes 10 percent, with Chris Christie at 2 and John Kasich at 1.

News of the Day

GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

Iowa: January 28, Fox News

New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News

South Carolina: February 13, CBS

Texas: February 26, CNN

Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

Primary Schedule
Iowa: February 1

New Hampshire: February 9

South Carolina: February 20

Nevada: February 23

Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

Puerto Rico: March 6

Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

Virgin Islands: March 19

American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

Wisconsin: April 5

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

Oregon: May 17

Washington: May 24

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7

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