GOP Polls for Jan. 27: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire

Donald Trump will skip the last debate before the Iowa caucus but leads in the state’s polling. (Getty)

We’re just four days from kicking off the 2016 primary race in Iowa. Ahead of the final pre-Iowa caucus debate, new polls by Monmouth and Quinnipiac show Donald Trump edging Ted Cruz in a tight race. Trump leads nationally and in New Hampshire. Trump also holds the national betting lead, as aggregated by PredictWise.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

Iowa

Ted Cruz trails in Iowa polls, but experts like his chances. (Getty)

New polls show a slight Trump lead in Iowa. Monmouth shows Trump with a 7-point lead, 30 percent to Cruz’s 23, with Rubio at 16 and Ben Carson at 10. Cruz, however, leads 28 percent to 23 percent among Iowa Republicans who regularly caucus. Via Quinnipiac, Trump leads by just 2 over Cruz, 31 percent to 29, with Rubio at 13.

The RealClearPolitics averages show Trump with a 5.8-point lead over Cruz at 32.7 to 26.9 percent, with Rubio running third at 12.6 percent.

Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

If the caucus results bear out the polling, an interesting quirk of the Iowa caucus could change the landscape of the race. Under caucus rules, if a candidate fails to reach a 15 percent threshold, his or her supporters are required to select another candidate. According to recent polls, that means that 40 percent of the Iowa Republican electorate will be up for grabs on caucus night.

The polling history from RealClearPolitics shows an encouraging result for Trump. Six days before the caucus in 2008, Mike Huckabee led Mitt Romney by just 2 points (30.5 to 28.5 percent), smaller than Trump’s lead over Cruz; Huckabee took 34 percent and the victory, while eventual nominee John McCain finished fourth. In 2012, eventual Iowa winner Rick Santorum was polling fourth at 13.8 percent, with Ron Paul in the lead at 21.3 percent; there’s been no recent surge from a 2016 Trump challenger.

Despite these polling results, FiveThirtyEight, which takes more than polls into account for its “polls-plus” forecast, holds Cruz at a 49 percent chance of taking Iowa, with Trump at 42 and no other candidate in double digits. The polls-only forecast, which weights polls based on methodology and past accuracy, favors Trump with a 55 percent chance, compared to 38 for Cruz and single digits for everyone else.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Model

Trump fell precipitously in the as aggregated by Predictwise, 66 to 56 percent. Cruz rose to 40 percent, with no one else in double digits.

Click the “next page” button below for New Hampshire and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.

New Hampshire

Marco Rubio is struggling to regain traction in New Hampshire. (Getty)

A new poll by Franklin Pierce University and the Boston Herald shows a 19-point lead for Trump, 33 percent to 14 for Cruz, with Kasich at 12. It’s all bad news for Rubio, who not only falls to fourth with 8 percent but also sees his favorability fall 9 points; favorability is usually a marker for polling momentum.

According to RealClearPolitics polling averages, Trump has a 19.7-point lead with 33 percent of the vote, followed by Cruz at 12.8, Kasich at 12, and Rubio at 10.7.

New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

According to RealClearPolitics polling history, favorites are 1-for-2 in the past two Republican New Hampshire primaries. 15 days before the 2008 New Hampshire primary, eventual New Hampshire winner and nominee John McCain was 3.5 points behind then-frontrunner Mitt Romney, 29.8 to 26.3; McCain came away with a 5.5-point margin of victory, 37-31.5. However, in a 2012 race that more closely resembles Trump’s 19.6-point lead, Mitt Romney’s 19.8-point polling lead turned into a 16.4-point victory. It’s important to note that this point before New Hampshire in previous years was well after, not still before, the Iowa caucus, so the polling samples in 2008 and 2012 are dealing with important information this year’s sample does not have.

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast gives Trump a 53 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Cruz at 14 percent and Rubio tied with Kasich at 10. Since FiveThirtyEight controls 20 percent for previous primary results, Trump’s good news in the previous state can only help. Their polls-only forecast bumps Trump to 67 percent, with no one else in double digits.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

In the PredictWise betting averages, Trump drops slightly to 71 percent, but everyone else remains in single digits.

The Rest of the Country

Donald Trump is boycotting the Fox News debate Thursday over Megyn Kelly’s involvement. (Getty)

Recent national polls from ABC/Washington Post and CNN/ORC show Trump with commanding leads: 16 in the former, 22 in the latter. These nee numbers shift the RealClearPolitics polling averages to give Trump a 16.9-point lead at 36.2 percent, with Cruz taking 19.3 percent and Rubio at 11.

National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)

A little polling history: with six days to go before the 2008 and 2012 Iowa caucuses, neither eventual nominee was leading national polling, with McCain in third place, 6.2 points behind leader Rudy Giuliani, and Romney in second, 1.8 points behind Gingrich. However, neither Giuliani nor Gingrich were leading either of the first two state’s polls; Trump leads in both states.

The PredictWise betting aggregation shows Trump maintaining his high of 47 percent, with former frontrunner Rubio at 30 percent, Cruz at 11, and Jeb Bush at 10 percent.

News of the Day

GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

Iowa: January 28, Fox News

New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News

South Carolina: February 13, CBS

Texas: February 26, CNN

Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

Primary Schedule
Iowa: February 1

New Hampshire: February 9

South Carolina: February 20

Nevada: February 23

Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

Puerto Rico: March 6

Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

Virgin Islands: March 19

American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

Wisconsin: April 5

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

Oregon: May 17

Washington: May 24

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7

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