The Iowa caucus is Monday, when the caucus-goers will decide what recent polls are showing to be a tight race. Hillary Clinton maintains the national polling lead, according to RealClearPolitics, but Bernie Sanders is pulling ahead in Iowa, according to one new poll. Despite these tight margins, the betting markets (according to PredictWise) and Iowa FiveThirtyEight forecasts continue to favor Hillary. Sanders continues his hold on New Hampshire polls.
Here’s a look at the state of the race:
Iowa
The new Quinnipiac poll shows Sanders with a lead of 3 points over Clinton, 49 percent to 46 percent. That’s within the poll’s 4-point margin of error, and with O’Malley taking just 3 percent, meaning his supporters will be forced to choose one of the frontrunners, it’s possible Clinton could pull level even if these numbers hold out. It’s also an outlier, with most recent polls showing roughly as large a lead for Clinton; in another outlier from the same period, Clinton leads an Emerson poll by 8 points, 51-43.
In polling averages provided by RealClearPolitics, Clinton takes a 4-point lead, 47.9 to 43.9, with O’Malley at 4.3 percent.
Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
- Hillary Clinton: 47.9%
- Bernie Sanders: 43.9%
- Martin O’Malley: 4.3%
FiveThirtyEight, which utilizes factors beyond polls in its “polls-plus” predictions, dropped Hillary Clinton’s Iowa chances to 67 percent. Sanders rises to 33 percent, with O’Malley at less than 1 percent. (Due to rounding, the sum of the averages exceeds 100.) Its polls-only forecast, which doesn’t use extra factors but weights the polls according to methodology and past accuracy, gives Clinton a 72 percent chance to win the primary, with Sanders at 28, well above her RealClearPolitics lead.
FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast for Iowa
Click the “next page” button below for a breakdown of New Hampshire and national polls, as well as a look at the Democratic primary schedule.
New Hampshire
Two new polls show Sanders’s lead well in hand. UMass-Lowell/7News puts Sanders at a whopping 31-point lead, 61-30, while CNN/WMUR gives Sanders a 23-point, 57-34 lead. Keep in mind, though, that two polls from last week showed Sanders at just 8 and 7 over Clinton.
Sanders leads in the RealClearPolitics aggregation of recent polls by 18 points, with 55.5 percent to Clinton’s 37.5, with O’Malley holding 2 percent.
New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
- Bernie Sanders: 55.5%
- Hillary Clinton: 37.5%
- Martin O’Malley: 2%
FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast favors Sanders 87 percent to 13 percent. In their polls-only model, Sanders rises to a 96 percent favorite, compared to Clinton’s 4.
FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast for New Hampshire
The Rest of the Country
A recent national poll from Investors Business Daily came out Friday showing a 12-point lead for Clinton. This is in keeping with most national polls since the campaign began, and is not particularly predictive information: national polls include voters that won’t cast a ballot or head to the caucus for as many as five months, and a lot can change between now and then.
The RealClearPolitics averages update to include the latest poll shows Clinton’s lead at 14.4 points at 51.6 percent, with Sanders taking 37.2 and O’Malley taking 2.2.
National Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
- Hillary Clinton: 51.6%
- Bernie Sanders: 37.2%
- Martin O’Malley: 2.2%
The betting markets aggregated by PredictWise show Clinton at an 84 percent favorite to win the Democratic nomination, with Sanders at 15 percent and Martin O’Malley at 1 percent.
News of the Day
Democratic Primary & Debate Schedule
Debate Schedule
New Hampshire: February 4, MSNBC
Wisconsin: February 11, PBS
Florida: March 9, Univision
Iowa: February 1
New Hampshire: February 9
Nevada: February 20
South Carolina: February 27
Super Tuesday (Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia): March 1
Kansas, Louisiana: March 5
Maine: March 6
Michigan, Mississippi, Democrats Abroad: March 8
Northern Mariana Islands: March 12
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: March 15
Arizona, Idaho, Utah: March 22
Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: March 26
Wisconsin: April 5
Wyoming: April 9
New York: April 19
Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26
Indiana: May 3
West Virginia: May 10
Kentucky, Oregon: May 17
California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota: June 7
Washington, D.C.: June 14