Sanders and Clinton at the most recent debate. Clinton is a slight favorite according to recent Nevada polls. (Getty)
The Polls
New polls from Gravis and CNN/ORC show Clinton ahead of Sanders by a slight margin:
| Gravis | Released February 18 |
| Hillary Clinton | 53% |
| Bernie Sanders | 47% |
| CNN/ORC | Released February 17 |
| Hillary Clinton | 48% |
| Bernie Sanders | 47% |
These contradict a TargetPoint poll from earlier this week:
| TargetPoint | Released February 12 |
| Hillary Clinton | 45% |
| Bernie Sanders | 45% |
Before that, the most recent previous poll was conducted in late December:
| Gravis | Released December 28 |
| Hillary Clinton | 50% |
| Bernie Sanders | 27% |
| RealClearPolitics Averages | |
| Hillary Clinton | 47.5% |
| Bernie Sanders | 36% |
The Forecasts
Election forecaster FiveThirtyEight released their fist “polls-plus” forecast for Nevada. The forecast takes into account factors like endorsements, previous state results, and national polling trends to give context to the state polls, and declares the Nevada race a dead heat:
| FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast | |
| Hillary Clinton | 50% |
| Bernie Sanders | 50% |
The Betting Markets
Political betting markets report the amount and value of bets placed on a political candidate to win a particular race. Unlike polls, they can react to day-to-day events but are more removed from the process due to lack of actual contact with voters. Betting aggregator PredictWise compiles the action in several betting markets to provide probabilities for the race:
| PredictWise Nevada Forecast | |
| Hillary Clinton | 64% |
| Bernie Sanders | 38% |