GOP Polls for Feb. 1: State of the Race in Iowa & New Hampshire

Ted Cruz, here campaigning in Iowa, is hoping for a late surge to put him back on top in the first state. (Getty)

Today marks the Iowa caucus, the first chance voters get to determine who will become President. Recent polls suggest the Iowa caucus will be a close one. Donald Trump has the lead over Ted Cruz in the latest Des Moines Register poll, widely regarded as the most reliable, but a closer look at the data suggests it may be closer than the first take suggests. Trump’s national lead and his big margins in New Hampshire, meanwhile, seem a lot more secure, though nothing is certain with no votes yet cast. Trump also holds the national betting lead, as aggregated by PredictWise.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

Iowa

Donald Trump, campaigning with Jerry Falwell, Jr. in Iowa here, is at the top of most recent Iowa polls. (Getty)

Three new polls came out Monday, and two of them suggest a razor-thin margin for Trump. Quinnipiac puts Trump at a 7-point lead, 31 percent to 24 for Cruz, with Rubio at 17. However, Opinion Savvy, however, puts him at just a 1-point, 20-19 advantage over Cruz, with Trump taking the same margin over Cruz 27-26 via Emerson. Rubio has also seized serious momentum, tying Cruz in the Opinion Savvy poll and only 1 point in back of Cruz (2 behind Trump), lending credence to the idea that the Florida Senator, who earlier this month looked like an afterthought, could take the first state.

The RealClearPolitics averages show Trump with a 4.7-point lead over Cruz at 28.6 to 23.9 percent, with Rubio running third at 16.9 percent.

Iowa Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

FiveThirtyEight, which takes more than polls into account for its “polls-plus” forecast, drops Cruz from 41 to 38 percent despite this good polling news. Trump also drops from 48 to 46, though, the only positive being for Rubio, who rises to 14 percent. The polls-only forecast, which weights polls based on methodology and past accuracy, favors Trump with a 55 percent chance, compared to 32 for Cruz and 11 for Rubio.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Model

The betting markets as aggregated by Predictwise have Trump as a 63 percent favorite in Iowa, with Cruz at 30 and no one else in double digits.

Click the “next page” button below for New Hampshire and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.

New Hampshire

Marco Rubio got mixed news from the latest New Hampshire polls. (Getty)

Where Iowa is seeing the margins start to thin for Donald Trump, his New Hampshire leads are only getting larger. A new poll from UMass-Lowell/7News shows a whopping 26-point lead over Cruz, 38 to 12 percent, with no one else above 9. CNN/WMUR is not much friendlier to the field, showing an 18-point Trump lead at 30 percent, with Cruz taking 12 and Rubio 11. Rubio, fifth in the UMass-Lowell/7News poll, also only has 43 percent of his voters completely convinced, compared to 72 for Trump, 65 for Cruz, and 65 for John Kasich. Given that FiveThirtyEight puts up to 20 percent weight on previous state’s primary results, whether the polling surge for Rubio in Iowa comes through at the caucus may make or break his candidacy.

According to RealClearPolitics polling averages, Trump has an 21.7-point lead with 33.2 percent of the vote, followed by Cruz and Kasich tied at 11.5, Jeb Bush at 10.3 and Rubio at 9.5.
New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast gives Trump a 61 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Cruz at 14 percent and Rubio at 10. Their polls-only forecast bumps Trump to 73 percent, with no one else in double digits.

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

In the PredictWise betting averages, Trump holds fairly steady at 67 percent, with Marco Rubio at 11.

The Rest of the Country

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus has suggested that Iowa’s poor record at predicting nominees may lead to loss of its first-in-the-nation status. (Getty)

A recent national poll from Investors Business Daily gives Trump a 10-point lead over Ted Cruz at 31-21 percent, with Rubio at 10. It’s the smallest Trump lead of any poll in the RealClearPolitics polling average, which shows Trump with a 16.2-point lead at 35.8 percent, with Cruz taking 19.6 percent and Rubio at 10.2.

National Polling Averages (According to RealClearPolitics)

The PredictWise betting aggregation shows Trump holding fairly steady at 51 percent, with former frontrunner Rubio at 33 percent.

News of the Day

GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

New Hampshire: February 6, ABC News

South Carolina: February 13, CBS

Texas: February 26, CNN

Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

Primary Schedule
Iowa: February 1

New Hampshire: February 9

South Carolina: February 20

Nevada: February 23

Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

Puerto Rico: March 6

Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

Virgin Islands: March 19

American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

Wisconsin: April 5

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

Oregon: May 17

Washington: May 24

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7

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