Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton at the New Hampshire debate. (Getty)
The New Hampshire primary is upon us, and with it a chance to radically alter the race. Iowa winner Hillary Clinton trails Bernie Sanders by a substantial margin in New Hampshire, though the state’s been known for previous upsets. At stake are 24 delegates, more than enough to dramatically change a tight race between Clinton and Sanders.
Delegate Count (2,382 Needed for Nomination)
Read our roundup of the various predictors going into today, then vote in our poll at the bottom of the page.
The Polls
Polls continue to consistently show a Sanders lead but differ on the size of that lead. The UMass-Lowell tracking poll shows a 16-point lead for Sanders, 55 percent percent to 40 percent, a stabilizing lead for Sanders after a significant drop post-Iowa. Emerson is less favorable to Sanders, with a 12-point lead at 54-42. CNN/WMUR, however, reports a Sanders advantage of 26 points, 61 percent to 35 percent.
Sanders leads in the RealClearPolitics aggregation of recent polls by 13.2 points, with 53.9 percent to Clinton’s 40.7.
New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
- Bernie Sanders: 53.9%
- Hillary Clinton: 40.7%
- Bernie Sanders: >99%
- Hillary Clinton: <1%
The Forecasts
FiveThirtyEight, which utilizes factors beyond polls in its “polls-plus” predictions, is now practically guaranteeing Sanders’s chances at a greater than 99 percent chance. It’s important to note, though, that this is based on available information, which could still change in the four days until polling opens. Its polls-only forecast, which doesn’t use extra factors but weights the polls according to methodology and past accuracy, puts Sanders all the way at 98 percent.
FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast for New Hampshire
Early Voters
A few small towns in New Hampshire voted late last night, with mixed results. Sanders swept Clinton 4-0 in Dixville Notch and won 12-7 in Hart’s Location, while Clinton took Millsfield 2-1.