POLL: Kid Rock Leading in Michigan Senate Race

Could Kid Rock really have a chance at becoming a U.S. Senator? A new poll suggests it’s possible.

The poll, by the Trafalgar Group, shows that Kid Rock, whose real name is Robert Ritchie, actually has a lead in the race against Democrat Debbie Stabenow when you count leaning voters, although it’s in the margin for error. And he hasn’t even started campaigning yet. Trafalgar Group, a small polling company based in Atlanta, correctly predicted that Donald Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania when most pollsters said otherwise.

Kid Rock, 46, embodies the working class blue-collar mindset that propelled Donald Trump into a surprise Michigan win in the 2016 presidential election. Kid Rock said previously on Twitter that he was running for Senate, tweeting a link to the website KidRockForSenate.com and writing, “I have had a ton of emails and texts asking me if this…is real. The answer is an absolute YES.”

Since then, he’s shared a series of campaign statements on Twitter and released a statement on his campaign website that says he “was beyond overwhelmed with the response I received from community leaders, D.C. pundits, and blue-collar folks that are just simply tired of the extreme left and right bullsh*t.” He added that he was creating an effort to improve voter registration and concluded, “if I decide to throw my hat in the ring for US Senate, believe me… it’s game on mthrfkers.”

A second poll showed Kid Rock behind Stabenow but ahead of all other Republicans in a theoretical primary race. According to The Los Angeles Times, people aren’t sure yet whether Kid Rock is just saying all of this for publicity or is really going to run, but political experts are not counting him out in the current climate.

Kid Rock.

“You gotta take it seriously until he says ‘I’m out,’” Dave Dulio, professor and chair of the political science department at Oakland University in Michigan told The Los Angeles Times. “I don’t have to tell you, it’s for obvious reasons when we’re in the wake of Donald Trump running for president and winning.”

Here’s how the poll numbers broke down:

Trafalgar Group Poll

Trafalgar Group also released a more detailed breakdown of the poll that showed some of the voters were categorized as leaning one way. Among certain voters, Stabenow was slightly ahead.

The organization conducted the poll of 1078 respondents, and it has a margin of error of +/- 3.06.

Trafalgar Group Senior Strategist Robert Cahaly said in a news release, “If Kid Rock does run as a Republican, the nomination is likely his. It would be like racing your personal car against Daytona winner Kurt Busch and giving him the head start. He’s going to be doing donuts on the infield while you’re still trying to change your tires.”

As for a general election matchup between Stabenow and Kid Rock, Cahaly said, “A general election with Kid Rock and Stabenow could be close and fun to watch. Of course, Kid Rock’s new c4 focused on registering voters could impact the canvas on which this election will be painted in ways that can’t be measured at this point. Regardless the debates would truly be ‘the greatest show on Earth’ and the uncensored version could be a pay-per-view blockbuster.”

Trafalgar Group Poll With Leaners Broken Down

The poll also compared Kid Rock to other GOP primary opponents. Here are those results:

Trafalgar Group GOP Primary

A second poll by another organization showed Kid Rock behind Stabenow but ahead of the closest GOP contender. However, The Los Angeles Times reported that Kid Rock was 17% ahead of the next closest GOP primary opponent in that poll.

Target-Insyght

According to The Los Angeles Times, Kid Rock, as of July 29, had not yet “filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, which is required within 15 days of spending or receiving more than $5,000 in support of a possible campaign.”