National Hurricane Center
Will Hurricane Dorian hit Florida? That question is on the minds of many today as the monster storm has been sitting off of Florida’s east coast, circulating over the Bahamas at a near standstill.
Dorian is making its way west and is expected to make a turn north in the next 24 to 48 hours. The storm is moving at a snail’s pace, just 1-mile-per-hour at this time.
“The storm is crawling to the west at 1 mph. Turn north expected LATE today or early tomorrow. Scroll down and read my overnight thoughts for specifics. Still expecting Dorian to our east through tomorrow,” Tampa-area meteorologist Denis Phillips wrote on Facebook on September 2.
Those living on Florida’s east coast should be hoping for the best and preparing for the worst. A small change in Dorian’s track could bring severe weather to the area. The current track is set to keep the heaviest wind offshore, but the east coast is still bracing for wind, rain, and storm surge.
Here’s what you need to know:
The GFS & Euro Models Are Mostly in Agreement With Dorian’s Turn North
The latest computer models seem to be in unison when it comes to Dorian’s track. The Category 4 storm may wobble a bit before being picked up by a trough that will take him up the eastern seaboard. The coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina will also be affected by the storm if the current track holds true.
Over the past week, the GFS and Euro computer models were often in disagreement when it came to Dorian’s path. Dorian’s current projected path has the models working in unison.
What is unclear, however, is exactly when Dorian will make the turn north. Because of this, many people living in Florida are starting to worry — as Dorian currently sits, it’s hard to imagine that he will just take off and head north. Meteorologists seem to agree with the current track and have been working tirelessly to bring the very latest updates to those anxiously awaiting Dorian’s turn.
You can see the latest GFS run below:
For those wondering, the latest GFS model run remains consistent with forecast expectations.
#Dorian turns NNW tonight, scrapes the #FLwx Space Coast tomorrow night/Wednesday AM then heads for Eastern #NCwx Thursday-Friday. More maps available at t.co/6eoB4do34L
You can see the latest Euro run below:
12pm gfs run loop shows a consistent east movement from 6am for almost each timeframe which is always a good thing but king euro here in bit will reflect if that shift east was warranted..if the euro moves east too then a little more confident #HurricaneDorian #Dorian2019 #Dorian
You can also see the current GFS & Euro runs by clicking here. For those wishing to stay on top of this information, the National Hurricane Center updates its maps and tracks at least once per day. You can check out the NHC website here.
Some East Coast Communities Have Issued Mandatory Evacuations from Florida to South Carolina
Although Dorian is not expected to make landfall anywhere along the east coast, mandatory evacuation orders have been put into place as a precaution. Additionally, storm surge could be an issue regardless of Dorian’s exact location in the Atlantic.
The following counties have mandatory evacuation orders in place: St. Lucie County, Volusia County, St. John’s County, Putnam County, Palm Beach County, Nassau County, Martin County, Indian River County, Flagler County, Duval County, and Brevard County. Other counties have voluntary or phased evacuation orders.
You can see a full list with detailed explanations on the Florida Disaster Website.
On Sunday, South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster issued mandatory evacuation orders for the following counties and zones.
Colleton Zones A, B
Beaufort Zone A
Jasper Zone A
Charleston Zones A, B, C
Dorchester Zone D
Berkeley Zones B, G
Horry Zone A
Georgetown Zone A