What Is an ‘October Surprise’? What Does it Have to Do With Trump’s COVID Test?

What is an “October surprise”? Why is it trending today?

The phrase started to trend on Friday amid news of President Trump’s positive COVID test. According to Smithsonian Magazine, the phrase was coined by William Casey, a political operative in the 1980s, who managed Ronald Reagan’s presidential campaign. The phrase is meant to describe an “unexpected political disaster in the twilit hours of a campaign,” Jared Keller writes for the magazine.

Keller continued, “Sometimes [October surprises] are intentionally positioned by political opponents to impact voters, often days before they head to the polls. They aren’t always successful, but they’ve become a staple of modern politics.”

Trump’s COVID test could be considered an “October surprise” for a number of reasons. Here’s what you need to know:

How Will Trump’s ‘October Surprise’ Impact the Next Few Weeks?

At the most basic level, Trump’s “October surprise” will all but guarantee a huge change to his campaigning in the last few weeks leading up to the presidential election in the first week of November. Because he and his wife have tested positive for COVID-19, they will be expected to quarantine themselves in the White House and not attend any public events.

Neither Trump nor any White House officials have given much indication about the extent to Trump’s symptoms, mild or severe, from the virus. His physician, Sean Conley, has issued a statement assuring the public that Trump and the First Lady are “well at this time.” Per the New Yorker, the statement continued, “Rest assured I expect the President to continue carrying out his duties without disruption while recovering, and I will keep you updated on any future developments.” The magazine also notes, though, that Trump’s voice had been hoarse throughout the day on Thursday, though that could be attributed to his many speaking engagements.

If Trump did experience extreme symptoms, or even become severely ill and hospitalized, that would signify an even more dramatic “October surprise,” as it would raise questions about whether he should serve another term, and could sway public opinion towards a vote for a healthy Joe Biden.

Who Would Take Over if Trump Became Incapacitated From the Virus?

If Trump were to fall severely ill from the virus, then Vice President Mike Pence would take over. If Pence, too, tested positive for the virus, then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi would take control in the Oval Office.

Of course, this doesn’t answer the question of what would happen to the presidential election if Trump became incapacitated. Under the 25th Amendment, a president can transfer emergency powers to the Vice President, and can reclaim his powers whenever he becomes well again. That doesn’t account for what would happen if Trump refused to transfer his powers, though, and it doesn’t account for what would happen to the election.