Getty Lamar Jackson after beating the Bills.
The Baltimore Ravens (11-2) and New England Patriots (10-3) have been the top-two Super Bowl favorites for over a month. But if their trajectories were cruise ships, they’d be passing in the proverbial night.
Baltimore On the Rise
The day before the Ravens waxed the Patriots 37-20 on Sunday Night Football in Week 9, New England was favored at roughly +250, while the Ravens were barely in the top ten at +1400. The next day, the Ravens’ odds improved to +800.
Ravens’ Lamar Jackson better than Michael Vick? – t.co/uLTvCQ887J
NBA Slam Dunk Champ @nate_robinson on @Lj_era8:
“That’s Michael Vick 2.0 right there. He has the chance to be better than Vick if he keeps it up. He just has to make it to the Super Bowl.”
That win marked Baltimore’s fourth straight at the time. They have tacked on five more since then, taking over top spot in the AFC in the process.
Baltimore’s Super Bowl odds have mirrored their rise up the standings. Now riding a nine-game win streak while boasting the NFL’s best point difference (+194) and most-efficient offense, the Ravens are as short as +215 to win the Lombardi Trophy.
Their odds are now twice as short as any other team in the league.
What’s Happened to the Patriots?
The Patriots, on the other hand, have lost back to back games to fall to 10-3, with their Super Bowl odds going from a season-best of around +210 to roughly +450 after Week 14. Even with the slump in Super Bowl chances, they are still expected to win big in Week 15 – with a moneyline set at -441 as they are on the road to face Cincinatti.
Looking at the standings on the surface, there’s little cause for concern. New England maintains a one-game lead on the 9-4 Buffalo Bills in the AFC East, has the second-best point difference in the NFL (+170), and would get a first-round bye if the playoffs started today.
But digging deeper, concern grows.
New England built its gaudy record against, mostly, terrible teams. The Miami Dolphins (3-10), NY Jets (5-8), Washington Redskins (3-10), NY Giants (2-10) account for five of their ten wins. They have only beaten two teams that are over .500 (Steelers, Bills) and they’re 0-3 against teams that currently lead their division (Chiefs, Texans, Ravens).
The past success of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick is undeniable. With six Super Bowl titles together, they will go down as the greatest QB/coach combo in the history of the NFL. But this year’s team has massive flaws. The offense is averaging just 17.6 PPG over the last five weeks and their running game is bottom-ten in the league (96.2 YPG).
With Brady finally starting to show his age – a ripe old 42 – and the receiving corps seriously lacking for weapons, Belichick has few options to move the ball.
That stands in stark contrast to Baltimore.
The Ravens have three players with at least 480 rushing yards (Lamar Jackson, 1,017 yards; Mark Ingram, 887 yards; and Gus Edwards, 480 yards); the Patriots have one (Sony Michel, 653 yards). Through the air, Jackson has a 109.2 passer rating with 28 TDs and just 6 INTs. Brady has an 86.5 passer rating with 19 TDs and 7 INTs.
Unless the New England defense is generating takeaways like it did early in the season, there is nothing they do better than the Ravens right now.
What Lies Ahead?
The Patriots obviously have a lot more playoff experience than Baltimore, but they are constructing a difficult postseason road to navigate. They have little chance at claiming the #1 seed; they are, in effect, 1.5 games behind Baltimore (because the Ravens own the head-to-head tiebreaker) with just three games to go.
On top of that, the Pats are only half a game ahead of the 9-4 Chiefs, who also own the tiebreaker with New England thanks to their Week 14 win in Foxborough.
If New England drops one of its final three games, it could easily lose its first-round bye and would then have to play two road games, against two division winners, just to reach the Super Bowl.
In short, don’t expect their Super Bowl odds to trend back closer to Baltimore’s any time soon.