Getty The Braves have lost outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. to a season-ending injury. He shared a message on social media after the news broke.
Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for May 27. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop bets
Mitchell Parker Under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-115, DraftKings)
Mitchell Parker’s performance hasn’t been as solid on the road compared to home games. His recent outings have shown vulnerabilities, with his last four starts displaying a notable decline in ERA, wOBA, and strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Now, facing an Atlanta Braves lineup missing key players like Ronald Acuna, Sean Murphy, and Austin Riley might seem like an opportunity for Parker to shine, but the remaining hitters still pose a significant threat. The Braves’ performance against left-handed pitchers at Truist Field has been solid, with starters facing more pitches per plate appearance and averaging fewer outs compared to home games.
Though Acuna and Riley are out, their replacements have proven capable, and the Braves’ lineup remains potent. Travis D’Arnaud, Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies, Adam Duvall, Matt Olson, and Michael Harris II have all shown proficiency against left-handed pitching at home. This suggests Parker may struggle to go deep into the game, especially considering the strong bullpen options available to the Washington Nationals if needed. Overall, there’s reason to believe Parker’s under could be the safer bet in this matchup.
Cooper Criswell Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-115, DraftKings)
Cooper Criswell has consistently stayed under this hits allowed line, achieving this feat in 7 out of 8 starts, with an average of just 3.9 hits per start this season. Baltimore’s struggles against right-handed pitchers are evident, ranking 30th in OBP and 25th in wRC+ over the last 30 games. Moreover, four hitters in the Baltimore Orioles’ projected lineup are batting .225 or worse against righties, with 7 out of 9 having a BABIP of .304 or worse.
Baltimore’s team batting average against righties sits at .228, significantly lower than their performance against lefties. Criswell’s low average of 17.8 batters faced, 78.4 pitches, and 13.0 outs per game this season further reduces the chances of Baltimore surpassing this line. Additionally, in recent outings, 5 out of the last 6 and 8 out of the last 11 right-handed pitchers have stayed under this line against Baltimore.
Lock of the Day
Joe Ryan Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-140, DraftKings)
Joe Ryan has exceeded this line in 7 out of 9 games, excluding his first start where he had limited pitch count. Ryan’s performance this season has been exceptional, boasting a 2.78 XERA and 3.08 FIP, with impressive metrics placing him in the 80th percentile in expected batting average and 95th percentile in walk percentage.
Facing the Kansas City Royals, a team with low rankings in pitches per plate appearance and walk percentage against right-handed pitchers over the last 30 games, Ryan’s prop bet for strikeouts should also be favorable. Despite the Royals slightly above-average offense, the only scenario where Ryan might not reach six innings would likely involve significant hitting against him, a risk worth taking given his ability to throw strikes against a team that doesn’t draw many walks and tends to put the ball in play quickly. Overall, it’s a favorable situation to support Ryan in this matchup.
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