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Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for May 30. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145, DraftKings)
Kyle Tucker has faced a rough patch in the last three games, failing to meet this line even once. However, today’s matchup presents an ideal opportunity for him to turn things around. He’ll be facing Logan Gilbert, who has also struggled recently and happens to be a right-handed pitcher, playing into Tucker’s platoon advantage.
Tucker has notably performed much better against right-handed pitchers, boasting a .288 batting average with 36 hits, 13 home runs, and 26 RBIs. Moreover, Tucker excels against Gilbert’s pitch mix, which primarily consists of 4-seam fastballs, sliders, and splitters. Tucker has impressive grades against these pitches, with above 100 for 4-seams and sliders, and above 64% for splitters. Considering Gilbert’s struggles with his 4-seam and slider, with grades of 26% and 35% respectively this season, the stage seems set for Tucker to deliver a standout performance.
Christian Scott Over 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+105, DraftKings)
Christian Scott has been inconsistent this season, surpassing this strikeout line in only 2 out of 4 games. However, his recent misses against the Miami Marlins and San Francisco Giants can be attributed to their lower strikeout rates against right-handed pitchers, both ranking in the bottom 11 in strikeout percentage (K%).
In contrast, the Arizona Diamondbacks, Scott’s upcoming opponents, present a favorable matchup for strikeouts. Over the last 14 days, they have a 24.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, ranking ninth highest in the league. In the last 7 days, their strikeout rate has increased to 26.8%, ranking third highest against right-handed pitchers. Additionally, over the last 14 days, the Diamondbacks have the fourth highest Called Strikes plus Whiffs (CSW) percentage at 28.8%.
What makes this matchup particularly promising for Scott is the propensity of the Diamondbacks’ lineup to strike out. Since May 14th, seven of the batters in their projected lineup have strikeout rates exceeding 20% against right-handed pitchers, with five of them surpassing 25% and two exceeding 30%. Leadoff batter Corbin Carroll, for instance, has a 34.4% strikeout rate over the last 14 days against right-handed pitchers, ensuring Scott will likely face him multiple times.
Looking at their performance over the last 30 days against right-handed pitchers on the road, seven batters in the Diamondbacks’ lineup have strikeout rates exceeding 22.5%, with Joc Pederson, who bats third, striking out 40% of the time.
Lock of the Day
Trevor Williams Over 3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-175, DraftKings)
This line for Trevor Williams seems remarkably low. Williams has maintained a 21% strikeout rate this year, and the lineup he’s up against presents a golden opportunity for strikeouts. Seven out of the top eight players in the lineup have strikeout rates of at least 25% in the last 30 days. Furthermore, only two out of the nine players have a strikeout rate below 25%, with one of them batting ninth, meaning Williams will likely face him less frequently than any other player.
Additionally, Williams boasts a perfect 5-0 record on the road in Atlanta throughout his career, and while his strikeout rate this year is close to the league average, the combination of his success at this venue and the opponent’s propensity for strikeouts makes this line seem too enticing to ignore.
Furthermore, right-handed starters have hit the over in 15 out of the last 21 road games against the Atlanta Braves, with a 71% success rate, further supporting the case for taking the over on Williams’ strikeouts.
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