MLB Best Strikeout Prop Bets for August 2

Spencer Schwellenbach has exceeded this strikeout line in 6 of his last 7 games, with his only miss coming against San Diego. During this stretch, he has maintained a 28.7% strikeout rate. As a rookie coming off his best performance yet—an 11-strikeout game—Schwellenbach now faces the struggling Miami Marlins. It’s worth noting that even a veteran like Charlie Morton was expected to excel against them.

Schwellenbach, who is 16 years younger than Morton and boasts a 2% higher strikeout rate, will be pitching against a Marlins lineup that has never faced him before. Schwellenbach’s primary strikeout pitch, his splitter, has been particularly effective, as the Marlins’ current lineup has a 40% strikeout rate against that pitch over the last two years. Additionally, Schwellenbach has been dominant at home, going over this line in 4 out of 5 home games and recording 5 or more strikeouts in each. His home K/9 rate stands at 10.61 compared to 8.19 on the road.

Cole Ragans Over 6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-120, DraftKings)

Cole Ragans has exceeded 6 strikeouts in 14 out of 22 starts this season, including a dominant game where he notched 12 strikeouts against this team earlier. In a small sample of 23 at-bats, Ragans has an impressive 47% strikeout rate against 7 batters from this lineup.

Although the Detroit Tigers have a relatively low strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers (LHP), this is mainly because they haven’t faced many top-tier LHPs like Ragans. Of the LHPs they have faced, only Yusei Kikuchi, who recently struck out 8 Tigers, has elite strikeout capability.

Ragans stands out as one of the premier strikeout LHPs in the league. He ranks among the top 7 for strikeouts this season with 149 Ks, featuring a 32.6% whiff rate (93rd percentile), a 29% strikeout rate (87th percentile), and a 30.7% chase rate (74th percentile).

He has already had success against some of Detroit’s batters, having struck them out more than once. Additionally, Justyn-Henry Malloy and Bligh Madris, who have only 28 at-bats this year and have never faced Ragans, will be at a disadvantage due to their lack of familiarity with his pitches, especially his changeup, which has a 49.3% whiff rate.

NRFI Bet of the Day

Kansas City Royals Vs. Detroit Tigers Under 0.5 1st Inning Runs (-140, DraftKings)

Tarik Skubal will be starting for the Tigers. He has been highly successful with a 16-5 record on No Runs First Innings (NRFI) bets this season, including a 7-3 mark at home. Skubal will face the Kansas City Royals, who have been scoreless in 75% of their first innings on the road. Skubal boasts the best ERA in MLB at 2.35 and the second-best WHIP at 0.92. At home, he excels even further with a 1.95 ERA and a .171 opposing batting average. He ranks in the 94th percentile for walk rate, 90th for strikeout rate and fastball velocity, and 93rd for expected ERA (xERA).

On the other side, Cole Ragans will pitch for the Royals. He has a 17-5 record on NRFI bets this season, including an impressive 8-1 mark on the road. He’ll be up against the Tigers, who have been scoreless in 72% of their first innings at home and in 7 of their last 10 games overall. Ragans has a 2.83 ERA and a .214 opposing batting average on the road this year. The Tigers rank 24th in wRC+ and 25th in OBP against left-handed pitchers this season, and they are also 23rd in walk rate. Ragans ranks in the 88th percentile for strikeout rate and 93rd for whiff rate.