Vikings Predicted to Part Ways With Breakout Pass Rusher

Getty Edge-rusher DJ Wonnum of the Minnesota Vikings.

The Minnesota Vikings are going to have a tough time extending edge-rusher Danielle Hunter, and he isn’t the only one.

Hunter presents the Vikings with problems because has been awesome in 2023, can’t be franchise-tagged next offseason and is probably going to be too expensive heading into his age-30 campaign for Minnesota to justify a new contract.

DJ Wonnum, on the other hand, should be relatively affordable in free agency by comparison, but may not be worth the money he can get elsewhere across the league.

Alec Lewis of The Athletic on Monday, December 4, authored a mailbag in which he answered a question about the Vikings’ “appetite” to bring Wonnum back on an extension. Lewis’ answer was more or less that a deeper dive into the outside linebacker’s numbers doesn’t bode well for his return to Minneapolis.

Fifty-one defenders have rushed the passer on 300 snaps this season. Wonnum ranks 43rd out of those 51 in terms of pressure rate, according to Tru Media. His year-over-year pressure rate has also declined. In 2022, he pressured the quarterback on 9.9 percent of his snaps. This year, that number has dropped to 8.9 percent. His win rate is also down from 8.2 percent in 2022 to 6.7 percent.

So, why does it feel like he has leaped forward? It’s likely a byproduct of splash plays. Last year, Wonnum recorded four sacks. This season, he already has six.

As for an extension, the Vikings are well aware of their looming hole at edge rusher. Both Danielle Hunter and Wonnum are set to become free agents. The Vikings appreciate Wonnum’s commitment and work ethic, but his overall production still leaves a lot to be desired.

DJ Wonnum’s Contract Demands May Exceed His Value to Vikings

GettyOutside linebacker Danielle Hunter (left) and teammate DJ Wonnum (right) of the Minnesota Vikings.

The way this season has played out for Wonnum has driven up his value in a traditional sense, though perhaps not in the ways particularly appreciated by analytics stat-head/general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah.

Wonnum, a fourth-round draft pick of the Vikings in 2020, is playing the final season of a four-year, $4 million contract. With a salary cap number under $3 million in 2023, Wonnum represents significant value as a player who has stepped in for Marcus Davenport as the team’s second starting outside linebacker alongside Hunter.

Davenport, hampered by injury for much of the year and fresh off the IR, has played in just four games this season after signing a one-year, $13 million contract to join Minnesota in the spring. As a result, Wonnum has started 11 of the 12 games in which he has appeared and is on pace for a career year in both sacks and QB hits. He is also on pace for the second-most quarterback pressures of his NFL tenure.

That success has led Over The Cap to set Wonnum’s 2023 valuation at $8.2 million, which is almost three times the amount of his cap hit this season and more than eight times the amount of the annual average salary on his current deal. Hence, his tremendous current value.

But as Lewis pointed out, Wonnum’s play-in and play-out production has actually dipped since last season. That could simply be a small regression for a 26-year-old presumably still in his prime, or it could be an indication that Wonnum is peaking now and won’t be worth the kind of money his valuation suggests he should earn on his next deal.

Vikings May Face Complete Overhaul at Edge-Rusher in 2024

GettyMinnesota Vikings outside linebacker Danielle Hunter.

Hunter, Davenport and Wonnum represent the core of the Vikings’ pass rush this season, and all three may depart by March.

That kind of turnover at a premium position is difficult for any team to navigate, let alone one that blitzes at a higher rate than any other defense in the league under coordinator Brian Flores, who might also leave Minnesota in 2024 for another shot at a head coaching position.

But the Vikings won’t get where they want to go by paying good players as though they are great players, and that figures to be the biggest problem with bringing Wonnum back on an extension.

Looking for a premier edge-rusher in free agency whose arrow is pointing more clearly upward, even if he’s more expensive than Wonnum, may offer the Vikings better value. The same is likely to be true of a rookie prospect somewhere in the middle rounds of the upcoming draft, where Minnesota initially found Wonnum four years go.