Orioles Ace Predicted to Sign $288 Million Deal With Division Rival

Getty Corbin Burnes pitching during a July 10 game against the Chicago Cubs.

While the Baltimore Orioles stare down the final third of the 2024 season, fans aren’t ignoring the Corbin Burnes-size elephant in the room. Will he leave in free agency?

Amid another Cy Young-worthy campaign, there’s no question he’ll have suitors aplenty. Zachary D. Rymer predicted that the Boston Red Sox will make an offer he can’t refuse in a August 1 column for Bleacher Report.

“If neither the Yankees nor the Dodgers go all-out for Burnes, there will be that much more of a window for other big spenders like the Mets, Rangers and the pick here to actually sign him: the Red Sox,” Rymer wrote.

He forecasted an eight-year, $288 million deal for Burnes and the Orioles’ AL East rival.

“There was a time when they [Red Sox] were spending about $60 million more than they’re spending this year,” Rymer wrote. “This winter should be their excuse to get back to those days, as the team they have now looks like an up-and-coming contender worth investing big bucks in.”

Burnes is 11-4 with a 2.47 ERA in 2024. He’s pitched 138.2 innings, throwing 128 strikeouts against only 33 walks. He’s earned the lucrative payday awaiting him this winter and has hinted that he would test free agency.

Orioles Supplanted 2025 Pitching Rotation at Trade Deadline

Burnes’ impending free agency influenced Baltimore’s moves at the trade deadline. They acquired two starting pitchers who will be under team control for at least next season.

The first, Zach Eflin, cost them three prospects: Matthew Etzel, Jackson Baumeister and Mac Horvath. None of them were further along than Double-A in their MLB progression or ranked highly in the farm system.

Eflin’s $18 million salary for the 2025 season cut the Orioles’ cost on the front end. And they’re better for it. Eflin pitched six innings of one-run baseball in his Baltimore debut, an 11-5 win over the Toronto Blue Jays.

The second starter they acquired, Trevor Rogers, could make his debut August 1 in the Orioles’ series opener against the Cleveland Guardians.

The 26-year-old left-hander cost the Orioles a more premium package — two prospects with MLB time — of Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers. But he’s also under contract through next season.

Regardless of what happens with Burnes’ free agency, Baltimore made insurance moves against the worst possible outcome.

Mike Elias Talks Trade Deadline

General manager Mike Elias and the Orioles front office stayed busy throughout the MLB’s trade deadline cycle.

All in all, Baltimore acquired two starting pitchers, two relief pitchers and three hitters. Elias told reporters on July 31 that he felt the roster was better positioned for a deep playoff run.

He also noted that every pitcher acquired is under team control beyond next season.

“We took on a Zach Eflin $18 million happily because he’s a really good pitcher and he’s going to be a big part of our rotation this year but also slots right into the top of it next year” Elias said, according to Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports. “…Seranthony Domínguez has a club option, Gregory Soto still has another year of arbitration, Trevor Rogers has two more years of arbitration. Zach’s under contract next year. So I think all that’s nice.”