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The Boston Red Sox promised a “full throttle” offseason in November after finishing in last place in the American League East for the second straight year in 2023. That hasn’t happened yet. Acquiring a pitcher like Corbin Burnes would change the perception of the organization’s winter, though.
Bleacher Report’s Brandon Scott shared fresh hypothetical trade packages on February 1 for top players rumored to be available. Here’s what he cooked up for the Red Sox to acquire the 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner:
- Red Sox receive: starting pitcher Corbin Burnes
- Milwaukee Brewers receive: outfielder Miguel Bleis, outfielder Wilyer Abreu and shortstop Marvin Alcantara
The perceived centerpiece of this deal would be Bleis. The 19-year-old outfielder is recovering from shoulder surgery, but MLB.com ranked him as Boston’s fifth-best prospect after 2023. He posted a .607 OPS in 31 Single-A games before getting hurt.
Abreu impressed as a rookie in 2023 for the Red Sox. He hit .316/.388/.474 with two home runs and 14 RBI in 85 plate appearances. As for Alcantara, he just turned 19 and split his 2023 campaign between Rookie Ball and Single-A.
Do the Red Sox Have a Big Splash in Them?
So far this winter, Boston has made three significant acquisitions to help its 2024 big-league roster. They added to the lineup by making trades for outfielder Tyler O’Neill and shortstop Vaughn Grissom. Their one major free-agent move included signing starting pitcher Lucas Giolito to a two-year, $38.5 million contract.
While it’s already February, a slow-moving market is allowing the Red Sox an opportunity to significantly change their projected 2024 outlook with a big splash or two. Do they have at least one in them, though? The New York Post’s Jon Heyman felt like they did as of January 24. He also named Boston and the Texas Rangers as the best fits for free-agent hurler Jordan Montgomery.
A report has since surfaced putting a squash on hopes Boston would go after Montgomery or two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell. The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier said on January 27 that “every indication remains that the Sox won’t be pursuing long-term deals” for either top-tier free agent.
That’s where Burnes could potentially come into play. He’d cost prospects, but he’s scheduled to be a free agent next winter after earning $15.6 million in 2024, per Spotrac. This also doesn’t appear to be an option, according to a December 22 report from Speier. “Burnes is an unlikely target given he’ll be a free agent after next season and seems unlikely to sign an extension before testing the market,” he said. “[Shane] Bieber likewise has just one year of control remaining, though he seems at least open to the idea of a longer-term deal.”
A lot can change in a short period when it comes to Hot Stove rumors. However, this seems like a pretty clear stance from the Red Sox regarding rotation upgrades.
A Look at Boston’s Projected Rotation Production
FanGraphs’ Roster Resource currently has Giolito, Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and Tanner Houck as Boston’s Opening Day starting rotation. The projected production from this group leaves a lot to be desired.
FanGraphs’ depth-chart projections peg this area of the Red Sox roster for 11.9 WAR in 2024. That’s the 17th-highest in baseball and the second-worst among American League East teams. Only the Baltimore Orioles (10.3 WAR) have a lower projection.
The Orioles could certainly use a frontline starter. But they also have an elite young core and are fresh off a 101-win campaign in 2023. Meanwhile, Boston has finished last in the division three times over the past four years. They don’t have the same position-player core that Baltimore has, nor do they have as much elite talent getting developed in the minor leagues.
As free agents continue lingering on the open market, it could present an opportunity for the Red Sox to make a splash. While Burnes is likely available for the right price, it doesn’t appear to be something Boston is seriously entertaining right now.
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