The New York Mets’ offseason priority list will not begin with Corbin Burnes, but don’t be surprised if he ends up in Flushing in 2025.
No matter what happens the rest of the season, you can expect the Mets to make re-signing Pete Alonso their top priority. After that? They’ll probably make a hard push for New York Yankees outfielder Juan Soto, who will be the top prize on the free agent market.
That shouldn’t mean Burnes will be far from their minds. That’s why Bleacher Report’s Zachary Rymer named the Mets as the top potential landing spot for the Baltimore Orioles ace in a story published Wednesday, September 4.
“The thing about the Mets is that they check every box as a prospective suitor for Burnes,” Rhymer wrote.
Rhymer laid it all out and it tracks. For one thing, Burnes is going to command a hefty salary and Mets owner Steve Cohen has never hesitated to shell out big bucks for top talent. For another, Burnes has said he will do his research before picking a new team, specifically delving into the farm systems of prospective suitors. The Mets’ farm system ranks in the top third of the league per Bleacher Report’s midseason farm system rankings.
Most clearly, Burnes would fill a need for the Mets. Yes, Kodai Senga should be back next year but there’s no guarantee what they will get from him. Additionally, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana are both free agents at the end of the year and Sean Manaea will likely opt out of his contract.
The Mets will need stability in their rotation and Burnes has a track record that demonstrates he could provide that.
Corbin Burnes Free Agent Contract Projection
If Burnes is going to hit the open market, the natural question becomes exactly how much money he can make. The Orioles are paying him $15,637,000 this year, which at this rate will look minuscule compared to his 2025 salary.
Take Cohen out of the equation for a second — there’s no telling how much he will shell out to land a player he wants. Spotrac projects Burnes’ market value at $30.4 million and estimates he could sign a six-year contract with that average annual value in the offseason. That would add up to a six-year, $182.7 million deal.
Some projections, however, far exceed that. Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter predicted a seven-year deal for Burnes worth $255.5 million, which, he points out, would give him a higher AAV than the Yankees’ Gerrit Cole.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal broached the topic during Spring Training, and while he didn’t give an exact projection, he compared Burnes to Phillies pitchers Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, who signed $172 million and $126 million contracts respectively.
Burnes Will Have Plenty of Suitors
In addition to the Mets, Rhymer lists the usual suspects as potential Burnes suitors, including the San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Baltimore’s division rivals, the Yankees and Boston Red Sox, among others.
The Giants may be the most intriguing team of the bunch. Their ace, Blake Snell, could opt out of his contract at the end of the year and Burnes is a California native who went to college in the Bay Area.
The one hang-up, Rhymer says, could be the Giants’ reluctance to sign pitchers to long-term deals.
“The franchise’s tendency is more toward two- and three-year deals rather than long-term whoppers such as the one Burnes and [agent Scott] Boras will be looking for,” he explained.
Rhymer also left open the possibility that Burnes re-signs with the Orioles. Burnes has said previously that he’s open to it, and the Orioles’ farm system has produced Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Jackson Holliday in recent years. Burnes said he wants to play for a winning team, and the Orioles are in first place in the American League East as of September 4. With a young core in tow, they should stay competitive well into the future. Retaining their ace would certainly help that.
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Mets Named Best Fit for Orioles Ace Starting Pitcher