Getty The Mets will have several spots to fill in their starting rotation this winter. Could Corbin Burnes become their new ace?
The New York Mets are fighting to stay in the 2024 National League wild-card race. Regardless of their playoff status, questions about the club’s potential Hot Stove moves this winter are already being asked. Could Baltimore Orioles ace Corbin Burnes be on president of baseball operations David Stearns’ wish list?
Jon Heyman of the New York Post said during an August 28 Bleacher Report live stream that it was possible.
“I think the Mets are certainly going to be in play for Corbin Burnes,” he said. “Let’s keep in mind: [Luis] Severino is a free agent. [Jose] Quintana is a free agent. [Sean] Manaea will be a free agent as well because he has that opt-out for $13.5 million. So, we got three prime free agents for the Mets and Corbin Burnes is the top free agent pitcher.”
Heyman also noted that left-handed hurler Max Fried of the Atlanta Braves could be another viable option to bolster New York’s 2025 rotation.
.@JonHeyman thinks the Mets could be in play for Corbin Burnes and/or another big arm this winter 👀
Several contract predictions have Burnes surpassing $200 million. The latest was from Bleacher Report’s Zachary D. Rymer on August 1. He predicted Burnes would sign an eight-year, $288 million deal with the Boston Red Sox in free agency.
Corbin Burnes Would Fortify the Top of the Mets’ Rotation
Stearns built the Mets’ 2024 rotation thinking Kodai Senga would be the staff ace. Quintana was entering the final season of his two-year contract, while Severino, Manaea and Adrian Houser were all brought in as short-term solutions.
Unfortunately for the Mets, Senga has been limited to just 5.1 innings due to two separate trips to the injured list. Despite that, manager Carlos Mendoza has seen his club remain in playoff contention. Ahead of August 29 games, the Amazins are 69-64 and four games out of the final NL Wild Card spot.
Adding Burnes, who will be 30 in 2024, would solidify the top of New York’s pitching staff for the foreseeable future. The right-hander earned his fourth straight All-Star Game selection in 2024 and has posted a 3.23 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and 150 strikeouts in 164.1 innings.
He’s also been one of baseball’s most dominant pitchers since 2020. Burnes has posted a 49-29 record with a 2.94 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 915 strikeouts in 786.2 innings. His 21.0 WAR during this time is the second-highest mark among starting pitchers, per FanGraphs.
Mets’ Possible Corbin Burnes Pursuit Will Depend on Other Factors
Burnes will be the top starting pitcher available in free agency. However, a pursuit from the Mets might depend on other variables. More specifically, it could depend on what New York does regarding first baseman Pete Alonso and outfielder Juan Soto.
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale noted in June that Alonso could be looking for at least $200 million this winter. Meanwhile, Soto’s “floor” could be $500 million, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Would Mets owner Steve Cohen allow Stearns to drop as much as $700 million on two players?
“I bet he goes for both [Alonso and Soto],” one league executive who knows Cohen (but doesn’t work for the team) told SNY’s Andy Martino in February.
A lot has transpired between February and August. However, it’s not unreasonable to think Alonso and Soto are still at the top of the Mets’ wish list. Alonso is a homegrown player and they’ve been consistently seen as the biggest threat to the New York Yankees‘ chances of re-signing Soto. But if they fail to land both sluggers, they could pivot to make a difference-making move for the rotation.
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