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MLB‘s March 28 Opening Day is just over six weeks away, and with many pitchers and catchers already reporting to spring training, every team is focused on locking in their final roster for 2024. One club that’s been relatively quiet this offseason is the San Diego Padres, but even after signing reliever Wandy Peralta on February 9, the team’s plans to retool their pitching may only just be getting started.
On February 10, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported that the Padres have “shown interest” in free agent starters Michael Lorenzen and Noah Syndergaard, and just a day later, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi named the Padres as a team “keeping tabs on rotation depth,” again naming Lorenzen and Syndergaard as specific players being watched.
After multiple seasons of exorbitant spending, the Padres have been taking a much more conservative approach to payroll this offseason. In December, the team was hit with a $39.7 million luxury tax bill for their 2023 payroll — a team-record-setting $255 million — which is a lot to pay for a season where they didn’t even advance to the playoffs.
On January 7, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale predicted the Padres’ new financial outlook would lead to a very quiet winter in San Diego.
“[The Padres] don’t offer anyone more than $5 million a year the rest of the winter, trying to spread out the remaining $20 million in their budget to fill about six different positions,” Nightengale wrote. “Their World Series aspirations have melted into the goal of merely qualifying as a wild-card contender.”
On February 9, the Padres signed Peralta to a four-year, $16.5 million contract, but otherwise, few to no moves have been made this winter.
Padres’ Pitching Needs
In 2023, the Padres’ starting rotation had the best ERA in MLB at 3.69, but having lost Blake Snell, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha to free agency this winter, there are gaps to fill going into this season. In fact, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove are the only proven starters the Padres still have.
Despite the uncertainty, President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller told Acee that the team has a lot of options for their rotation, even if they don’t sign another starter.
“We feel like we’ve got a lot of quality options that are going to come to camp and … compete for jobs,” Preller told Acee. “We’re always looking to improve. You can never have enough starting pitching, and we understand that. But there are a lot of guys that are going to have an opportunity.”
Other than Darvish and Musgrove, the Padres have Michael King, whom the team recently acquired in a trade with the New York Yankees and who will be making a transition to full-time starter this season. To fill the remaining two rotation slots (potentially three if the Padres decide to stick to the six-man rotation they’ve utilized in the past), San Diego will have a range of young and inexperienced options to choose from.
Starters Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez, both of whom were acquired from the Yankees at the same time as King, each have less than 15 major league starts under their belt (Vásquez only has 5). Pedro Avila and Matt Waldron both made starts for the team last season and are invited to spring training. From the minor leagues, Ryan Carpenter and Jay Groome could be called up.
While one or more of these untested starters could burst into the majors with a vengeance, it’s more likely the Padres will see inconsistency as they experiment with putting together a cohesive rotation. If the team wants to contend in 2024, even with a substantially lower payroll, signing a proven starter is the best option.
Do Syndergaard and Lorenzen Fit on the Padres?
If the Padres are looking for proven reliability on the mound, Syndergaard is unlikely to be the best option, especially considering his most recent seasons.
In 2023, split between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cleveland Guardians, Syndergaard went 2-6 with a 6.50 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in just 88 2/3 innings. At the start of the season, he dealt with blister issues that landed him on the IL for seven weeks, and after being traded to the Guardians at the deadline, he struggled through just six starts before he was designated for assignment and eventually released.
Earlier in his career, Syndergaard was widely regarded as one of the top pitchers in the NL and was selected as an All-Star in 2016. At 31 years old, a comeback isn’t entirely off the table for the struggling starter, though a return to his Cy Young candidate form might be a bit of an ask. He’s likely to come at an extremely budget-friendly price, but it’s hard to say if Syndergaard is any better an option than the young, untested starters the Padres already have to choose from.
Lorenzen could be a more consistent addition to the Padres’ rotation, though he also comes with certain risks. In 2023, between the Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies, Lorenzen went 9-9 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, and he definitely slowed down after being traded midseason. In 11 appearances (7 starts) with the Phillies after the deadline, Lorenzen posted an underwhelming 5.51 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.
Regardless of whether they sign another lower-value starter or stick with their unproven options out of spring training, the Padres aren’t going to have much depth in their rotation in 2024, and keeping their players healthy is going to be crucial.
“I’m confident we’ll get the best out of what we have and (navigate) the balancing act of making sure we’re competing and keeping these guys healthy,” manager Mike Shildt told Acee. “The bottom line is we’re gonna have to have people step up and perform.”
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