Getty St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt
The St. Louis Cardinals are two games below .500 but are also tied for a National League wild-card spot. With less than two months until the July 30 trade deadline, they could buy or sell — and if they sell, Paul Goldschmidt might be on the move.
Goldschmidt is two seasons removed from an MVP campaign in which he hit 35 home runs and led the league in OPS (.981) and OPS+ (177). Bleacher Report’s Kerry Miller speculates that despite his lackluster numbers this season, Goldschmidt could be among the most targeted players at the deadline.
In his age 36 season, Goldschmidt is hitting .222 and has only 7 home runs in 56 games. Additionally, his on-base and slugging numbers would both be career worsts if the season ended today.
But that tells only part of the story. Over his last 19 games, Goldschmidt has started turning it around. Five of his 7 dingers this year have come in that stretch, and he’s hitting .279 in that time with a .347 average on balls in play. Not coincidentally, St. Louis is 13-6 in those games.
Miller points out, however, that despite Goldschmidt and the Cardinals’ resurgence, Baseball Reference still only gives them a 4.3% chance at the playoffs. Fangraphs is much more optimistic, but still gives the Cardinals less than a 1-in-3 chance at the postseason.
Part of the problem is that the National League wild-card picture is incredibly murky this time of year. Only about 60 games into the season, no NL team is more than 8 games out of a playoff spot. Only two are more than 4 games out. The next six weeks will provide some clarity, and if the Cardinals do, in fact, sell, then a half-year rental could be attractive for teams looking to add one more bat.
Paul Goldschmidt’s Contract With the Cardinals
Goldschmidt signed a five-year, $130 million deal with the Cardinals prior to the 2020 season, which expires this year. The way the deal is structured, he’s making $26 million in 2024. That accounts for a shade under 11% of the Cardinals’ luxury tax threshold.
He also has several incentives in his deal, though unless he continues this massive turnaround, it’s hard to see him hitting the big ones, like the $250,000 All-Star bonus.
At his age, Goldschmidt isn’t exactly auditioning for a long-term deal. However, if he moves and performs well for his new team, he could be in for a respectable payday in the offseason.
Potential Trade Suitors
Bleacher Report’s Tim Kelly speculated on Goldschmidt’s possible suitors earlier in the season while the first baseman was still struggling. He listed the Cleveland Guardians, New York Yankees, Texas Rangers and Minnesota Twins as potential suitors, adding that lower-budget teams could be an option as a rental.
Since that writing, however, the Guardians have already called up Kyle Manzardo, which might take them out of the running. The Rangers could be an intriguing option. Bruce Bochy has begun sitting lefty Nathaniel Lowe against left-handed pitchers and could use someone like Goldschmidt, who has a .323 average off of southpaws.
Kelly also suggested that even if the Cardinals aren’t contending, they might want to keep him around anyway.
“He won NL MVP with them and has spent six years in St. Louis after an eight-year run with the Arizona Diamondbacks,” Kelly said. “He has a very real Hall of Fame case, and the Cardinals might like the opportunity to claim that Goldschmidt was as much a Cardinal as a Diamondback if he enters Cooperstown.”