Getty The New England Patriots are tipped to trade quarterback Mac Jones for just a seventh-round pick in the 2024 NFL draft.
The New England Patriots shouldn’t expect to get much for Mac Jones if they trade the quarterback this offseason. In fact, Spotrac.com’s Michael Ginnitti believes “a 2024 7th round pick swap” with the San Francisco 49ers is the best the Pats can hope to fetch for the player selected 15th overall in the 2021 NFL draft.
Ginnitti made his prediction as part of a breakdown of how every team’s quarterback situation will play out during the offseason. He noted how the Patriots have options regarding Jones, including a trade or paying “his fully guaranteed $2.78M salary as a buyout.”
Striking a deal with the Niners makes sense. Especially since the NFC West franchise has two backup passers, Sam Darnold and Brandon Allen, “on expiring contracts right now.”
This isn’t the first time the idea of Jones moving to the Bay Area has been floated. He’d be a good fit for the offense called by 49ers’ head coach Kyle Shanahan.
Jones’ struggles making the grade in the Patriots’ system is a big reason why Bill Belichick’s job security has become an issue in New England.
Trade to 49ers Makes Sense for Mac Jones
Jones and the 49ers are a popular trade duo among writers predicting the league’s next wave of prominent deals. They were paired together back in November, in a report based on ESPN’s Bill Barnwell believing the 49ers are “an obvious landing spot given Kyle Shanahan’s reported interest before the Niners drafted Trey Lance.”
The scheme fit is obvious, particularly given Jones’ ability to gash defenses in the play-action game. He amassed 888 yards on 104 play-action passes in 2021, per Pro Football Reference, but Jones’ numbers in this area have decreased every season since.
That decline makes little sense when Jones was flawless throwing off of play action during a big win over the Tennessee Titans during his rookie year, per Next Gen Stats.
Mac Jones completed all 11 of his play action pass attempts for 169 yards in the #Patriots 36-13 victory over the Titans.
Jones’ 11 play action attempts without an incompletion are the most without an incompletion since Week 8, 2020 (Russell Wilson, 13).
Jones wouldn’t be lacking play-action opportunities in San Francisco. Not when current starter Brock Purdy has attempted 87 passes off play action and gained 933 yards.
Purdy was near flawless in the PA game against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 12, per PFF SF 49ers.
Brock Purdy off play action vs. the Seahawks:
7/8
103 yards
1 TD / 0 INTs
Perfect 158.3 passer rating
🚀
Few people would bet on Jones supplanting Purdy as starter, but the former would have a better chance of salvaging his pro career in Shanahan’s system. The Patriots would have a better chance to improve at football’s most important position without Jones hanging around as a reminder of past failures.
Mac Jones Has Suffered Rapid Decline
It’s still quite shocking how quickly Jones’ status has diminished. He went from a Pro Bowler as a rookie to somebody Belichick benched for Bailey Zappe this season.
Belichick shares more than a little responsibility for Jones’ swift regression. Not least because the coach inexplicably hired former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia and ex-Special Teams boss Joe Judge to run his offense in 2022.
Bill O’Brien returning as offensive coordinator was supposed to herald a revival for Jones. Instead, Zappe has looked more comfortable running O’Brien’s scheme.
The difference between how the two QBs have fared is summed up by Zappe taking more vertical shots. His ability to go deep was shown by this 37-yard connection with wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 14, highlighted by Next Gen Stats.
Bailey Zappe’s 37-yard pass to JuJu Smith-Schuster was the longest completion by air yards by a Patriots QB this season (30 air yards).
Completions of 25+ Air Yards (This Season):
🔹 Bailey Zappe: 2
🔹 Mac Jones: 0
Zappe “sits on a non-guaranteed $985,000 minimum salary next season,” according to Ginnitti, but he still has more of a future with the Patriots than Jones. With Belichick’s job status also in doubt, the Pats would be wise to make a clean break at quarterback, starting with dealing Jones for whatever they can get.