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The Buffalo Bills have waited almost 365 days to overcome their playoff struggles. Since the organization went to the AFC Championship Game in the 2020 season, it has tried to return to that moment.
Buffalo just won their fifth AFC East title in a row, and quarterback Josh Allen is wrapping up an MVP-caliber season, throwing for 3,371 yards, 28 touchdowns, and six interceptions while picking up 531 rushing yards and 12 scores.
Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but the narrative that he can’t beat Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and make a Super Bowl has hung over him for the last five years.
The 28-year-old quarterback is excellent in the playoffs, throwing for 2,273 yards, 21 touchdowns, and four interceptions in 10 games.
Allen is 5-5 in the postseason, looking to go above .500 this winter.
The NFL is a head coach/quarterback league, and the top teams usually have strong strengths in both departments.
Buffalo might have to change one of the positions if another short postseason run happens this January.
Allen isn’t going anywhere, but head coach Sean McDermott could be coaching for his job over the next few weeks.
McDermott, 50, is wrapping up his eighth season as Buffalo’s head coach. He has an 86-45 regular-season record and seven playoff appearances.
Sean McDermott’s Early Playoff Struggles
Not all of McDermott’s playoff appearances are equal. In his first season in Buffalo, his record was 9-7 with quarterback Tyrod Taylor and lost to Jacksonville in the Wild Card.
In McDermott’s third year, the Bills went to the postseason again, with Allen in his second season.
They lost to the Houston Texans in the Wild-Card game and to Kansas City in the AFC Championship 55 Weeks later.
Bills fans weren’t expecting Super Bowls in any of those three postseasons, and they were just happy to be in the dance after missing out for 17 straight years.
As the team gets better, expectations change, and Buffalo has not lived up to them in the last three postseasons.
Two Seasons of Heartbreak
Sunday, January 23rd, 2022, was going to be the day the Bills overcame their playoff struggles and were on the verge of beating the Chiefs in Arrowhead.
With only 13 seconds left, Allen found wide receiver Gabe Davis for a 19-yard touchdown to go up 36-33.
All the Bills had to do was play great defense for two snaps, and they would return to the AFC Championship Game.
The exact opposite happened. On the next play, Mahomes found wide receiver Tyreek Hill for 19 yards and then threw it to tight end Travis Kelce for 25 yards to set up a game-tying 49-yard field goal by Harrison Butker.
Butker hit the kick to force overtime. The Chiefs won the coin toss, and eight plays later, Kansas City was dancing in the endzone, dramatically ending the Bills.
Buffalo could feel the taste of beating the Chiefs on the tip of their tongue, but McDermott, a defensive-minded head coach, couldn’t get his unit to stop Kansas City from going 40 yards in 13 seconds.
A season later, the Bills were facing challenging times, with safety Damar Hamlin suffering a cardiac arrest during a Week 17 Monday Night Football game against the Cincinnati Bengals.
It was hard for Buffalo to fully recover after seeing one of their teammates almost lose their life and fell in the Divisional round to the Bengals three weeks later.
The Bills would recover in 2023, going 11-6 and getting the No.2 seed in the AFC, which was critical because Kansas City was the No.3 seed.
Kansas City Gets Buffalo for a 3rd Time
For the first time in the postseason, between this run of the Bills and Chiefs, Kansas City had to travel to Orchard Park instead of playing at home, and the same result happened.
Kansas City won 27-24, and two games later, clinched their third Super Bowl victory in five years, giving Mahomes his third ring to Allen’s zero.
Allen is supposed to be Mahome’s biggest rival, like the new version of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, but it’s hard to be a rival when one guy beats you every January.
Mahomes has a lot going for him, having one of the best head coaches in NFL history, Andy Reid, an elite defense, and arguably the best tight end ever to play, Travis Kelce, while Allen doesn’t have any of it.
McDermott has proven to be a good head coach, but his shortcomings in the postseason have prevented him from going to the next level.
The Bills Have Made a lot of Changes Except for Head Coach
The Bills have held everyone else accountable. Firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey in 2023 because the offense was taking a step back and getting rid of Allen’s best playmaker, wide receiver Stefon Diggs, this past offseason.
When does McDermott get the same heat?
If Buffalo loses to Kansas City for the fourth postseason in five years or even the Baltimore Ravens, owner Terry Pegula will have to ask himself if McDermott is the right person for the job.
It’s excellent that McDermott is winning many regular-season games and making the postseason.
The end goal is to win the Super Bowl, and for a franchise that has never won one, losing in the playoffs is not the answer.
Sometimes, there are limitations to a head coach, and McDermott might be unable to produce when the lights get the brightest.
When your quarterback is as great as Allen, you have to capitalize, and if that is changing the head coach, then it has to be done.
Joe Brady Could Pressure a Coaching Change
Buffalo is entering a critical time this offseason. Their offensive coordinator, Joe Brady, is a hot candidate for head coaching jobs. He has already set up interviews with the New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears, New York Jets, and Jacksonville Jaguars.
According to Pro Football Focus, Brady, 35, has the Bills’ passing offense ranked eighth and running game third this season, and losing him could be critical.
This has been the best Bills offense since Brain Daboll was the offensive coordinator from 2018 to 2021 before becoming the head coach of the New York Giants.
Brady could pressure Buffalo to fire McDermott and hire him as the head coach.
The NFL is known as an offensive league, and teams are trying to find their next Sean McVay. At 30, McVay was hired as the head coach of the Los Angeles Rams in 2017.
Brady’s game-calling style is starting to resemble McVay’s, which is why four NFL teams are considering him for the head coach position.
The Bills can’t afford to lose their star offensive coordinator to a division rival like the Jets.
With the right quarterback, Brady could make New York a winner and be a threat in the AFC East.
Many things point in the wrong direction for McDermott to fall short again this January.
Can Buffalo repeat the same mistake next season if McDermott falls to another great team, knowing the same result will likely happen again?
The Bills will open their postseason against the Denver Broncos on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET. A drastic loss could lead to a change in head coaching.
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