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The Buffalo Bills were holding their breath last week when the Cincinnati Bengals knocked off the Pittsburgh Steelers to position themselves for the No.7 seed in the AFC.
Cincinnati had to win its matchup against Pittsburgh. Then, the Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos had to fall, and the Bills would have a date with them in the Wild Card.
Miami lost to the New York Jets 32-20, and luckily, the Broncos blew out the Kansas City Chiefs backups 38-0 to clinch the last wild-card seed and knock Cincinnati out of the playoffs.
There was no way the Bills wanted to see a red-hot Bengals team with one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, Joe Burrow, and a two-headed receiving monster, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
It was just two years ago that Cincinnati walked into Orchard Park in the Divisional round and sent Buffalo packing, and no Bills fan wanted to see that matchup again.
The Bills got the team they wanted in playing the Broncos, and it’s the old guys vs the new kids on the block.
Broncos at Bills: The Basics
- Who: Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
- When: Sunday, January 12th, 1:00 PM Eastern
- Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
- TV and Streaming: CBS, Paramount+
- Betting: Spread Bills-8.5, Moneyline Bills-500, Over/Under 47.5, (ESPN Bet)
The Broncos are Young and Inexperienced
Denver hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2016, when quarterback Peyton Manning brought home their third Super Bowl victory in franchise history, while the Bills have been to the dance the last six seasons.
Buffalo’s quarterback Josh Allen will debut in his 11th playoff game, and Broncos signal caller Bo Nix will make his first postseason appearance.
Nix, 24, the No.12 pick in last year’s draft, had a fantastic rookie season, completing 66.3% of his passes for 3,775 yards, 29 touchdowns to 12 interceptions while picking up 420 yards and four scores with his legs in 17 games.
Denver looked like it would be irrelevant after the botched Russell Wilson trade; however, the rise of Nix and long-time veteran head coach Sean Payton has quickly rebuilt the organization. They are looking to take down one of the Super Bowl favorites.
The Broncos are in a perfect playoff position, and as the people in Las Vegas like to say, they are playing with house money.
Before the season, Sports Illustrated’s Conor Orr predicted Denver would finish with a 5-12 record, the second-worst team in the AFC, so they aren’t even supposed to be here.
The most dangerous teams come playoff time are the young squads that peak a year or two earlier than they are supposed to, and pressure veteran teams that have made a few postseason runs but can’t finish the job.
Denver would love to make a playoff run and rack up a few wins, but nobody will consider their season a failure if they fall short to Buffalo.
Buffalo Can’t Fall to a New Team
On the other hand, if the Bills lose to the Broncos, Josh Allen and head coach Sean McDermott will have to go into hiding.
The organization would not be able to recover from losing to a rookie quarterback in his first playoff game.
Allen feels the pressure of the national media, doubting if he can bust through and get to a Super Bowl.
There hasn’t been a young quarterback to rival Chiefs signal caller Patrick Mahomes, and Allen has been close a few times.
The Bills quarterback wants to be the quarterback to win their first Super Bowl out of Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Hebert, and the first step in that direction is beating Denver.
If the Broncos want to win, they might have to call some trick plays and go for it on brutal fourth downs, like we see when an underwhelming college football team upsets a talented squad.
Sean Payton is Tricky
Payton, 61, was the head coach of the New Orleans Saints in Super Bowl XLIV against the Indianapolis Colts. Coming out of the half, New Orleans made a surprise onside kick, which helped them win their first-ever Vince Lombardi Trophy.
The Broncos head coach’s experience and the young quarterback’s inexperience could make them a dangerous duo. Buffalo must ensure they get after Nix early and make it a rough 60 minutes.
If the Bills get an early lead, they will put a lot of pressure on Nix to start making plays, and that is when he can be careless with the ball. However, if it’s the other way around and Denver gets an early lead, Allen could make critical mistakes.
Throughout his seven-year NFL career, Allen has often tried to make a big play while trailing, throwing brutal interceptions that have allowed the opposing team to take an ever-larger lead.
If Allen plays mistake-free football and the defense can give Nix some welcome-to-the-NFL moments, then they should be just fine, but if the Bills keep Denver in the game late, then that’s a chance they can pull a rabbit out of their hat and do something knowing the pressure is on Buffalo.
Broncos Vs. Bills Prediction
The Bills know what is at stake, and their head coach and quarterback have extensive playoff experience together.
The NFL playoff games are almost always close. I’m not expecting a blowout, but the Bills will force Nix into some unforced errors, pull away by double digits in the fourth quarter, and never allow Denver to put late pressure on Buffalo.
The Bills will win 27-17 and return to the Divisional round for the fifth straight season.
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