Sometimes, the people who use analytics to justify their sports takes bet on the more obscure the stat they use, the more their argument will seem justified.
They bet on everyone else just going “Wow, you’re smart!” no matter how off-the-wall what they’re trying to tell us sounds like.
Sometimes, it’s important just to believe what we see with our own eyes.
ESPN’s Ben Solak used hot-take analytics to justify leaving Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix off his All-Rookie Team in favor of New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye. Solak did this despite Nix outpacing Maye in every important statistical category for a quarterback and leading Denver to the playoffs for the first time since the 2015 season — and doing it with a broken back.
It’s also worth pointing out Maye was the second team quarterback behind Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels.
But Maye over Nix? Really?
“It was very difficult to exclude Broncos quarterback Bo Nix, who improved over the course of the season and looks like a long-term starter,” Solak wrote on January 15. “While Nix outproduced Maye in raw stats, it is worth noting that Maye was better by success rate and first down/touchdown rate, indicating a high level of efficiency — despite getting pressured on 37.3% of his dropbacks compared to Nix’s 28.0%. Nix ripped off more explosive plays, but given his superior pass protection and receiving corps, that is not surprising. Both look like franchise guys, but Maye did it in a much worse environment and gets the second-team spot.”
Patriots One of NFL’s Worst Teams in 2024
The Patriots weren’t just one of the NFL’s worst teams in 2024 — they somehow even found a way to turn a win into an even greater loss.
Headed into the regular-season finale against the Buffalo Bills — who were sitting the bulk of their best players — the Patriots had the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft. Somehow, they pulled out the victory and dropped to the No. 4 pick and lost a franchise-changing player in the process or a once-in-a-lifetime trade piece.
That they did it with first year head coach Jerod Mayo walking the sideline made it all the more egregious … because Mayo was fired after the game and it was a decision that, seemingly, was made well ahead of the finale. It’s worth pointing out that Maye wasn’t the quarterback for that final game, but when he was their quarterback the Patriots were still really bad — he went 3-9 as the starter during his rookie year.
As recently as Christmas, Solak was on his soapbox trying to convince people Maye wasn’t just better than Nix but that he was also better than Daniels, who led the Commanders to a 12-5 season and their first playoff win since 2005.
Nix and the Broncos lost to the Bills, 31-7, in the AFC Wild Card Round. Maye was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft and Nix went at No. 12 overall.
” … I won’t let the Patriots’ record stop Maye from getting his deserved day in the sun in this crowded rookie class,” Solak wrote on December 25. “He has been at least as good — and I’d say better — as all of his contemporaries. And with good team building, the Patriots should be ready to vault into AFC East contention as soon as next season.”
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Drake Maye Gets Rookie Honor Over Broncos QB Bo Nix