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The Miami Dolphins were pegged as a team that might be better off trading down in round one of the NFL draft during an ESPN article on April 8.
Three days prior, NFL Network draft analyst Chad Reuter predicted a similar scenario, detailing a hypothetical trade proposal between the Dolphins and the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers. In this deal, the Niners jumped up to grab Oregon State offensive tackle Taliese Fuaga.
“I believe one of the top offensive tackles will drop outside the top 20, and Fuaga’s incomplete workout numbers, along with some teams projecting him as a guard, might make him the odd man out,” Reuter wrote. Adding: “Miami needs mid-round picks, so the 49ers send late third- and fourth- round selections (getting back a sixth-round pick in the exchange) to secure an immediate starter on the right side of the line.”
So, to sum up that five-pick swap according to the official 2024 draft order, the respective trade packages and “values” would project as follows:
- Dolphins get: 2024 first (No. 31), 2024 third (No. 94) & 2024 fourth (No. 132). Total pick value of 764.
- 49ers get: 2024 first (No. 21) & 2024 sixth (No. 198). Total pick value of 812.2.
Reuter finished up by forecasting that the Dolphins would select Houston offensive tackle Patrick Paul as a Terron Armstead understudy at No. 31, followed by a larger haul that included Texas tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders, Miami safety Kamren Kitchens, UCLA edge rusher Gabriel Murphy and Arizona wide receiver Jacob Cowing — utilizing the two extra picks from rounds two through five.
Dolphins Should Look for Greater Return If They Trade Down in Round 1 of NFL Draft
Trading down makes sense for the Dolphins, but Reuter’s return is somewhat weak for a 10-spot fall in the draft order. Especially when you consider the fact that Miami could have selected Fuaga rather than Paul.
Generally, when a team moves up in the order, they sacrifice a higher point value overall. In this deal, the Dolphins are dropping down and giving up value according to the 2024 NFL trade value chart.
Having said that, a slightly better package might accomplish a win-win scenario for Miami and San Francisco.
Let’s say the Dolphins really like Paul — either just as much as Fuaga or close enough — they can replenish their mid-round draft capital by filling the exact same position at pick No. 31. For a team hard-pressed for cap space both in 2024 and beyond (paydays coming for Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle and Jaelan Phillips), the extra selections would provide a major financial relief.
Head coach Mike McDaniel’s prior history with Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers organization could also act as an icebreaker between these two teams on draft night. At the very least, San Francisco feels like a realistic trade partner if both sides have interest in making a move.
Why Trading Down Is in the Dolphins’ Best Interest According to ESPN’s Bill Barnwell
ESPN staff writer Bill Barnwell recommended a Miami trade down on April 8, as mentioned above. Here’s why.
“Opposing teams have spent more than $184 million in free agency on guaranteed deals for players who were on the Dolphins last season. That’s more than the league has spent on any other team’s players this offseason, which underlines just how much Miami has lost from its roster,” Barnwell began.
“[The front office] also has to consider contract extensions for safety Jevon Holland, edge rusher Jaelan Phillips, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and wideout Jaylen Waddle this offseason, so this team isn’t about to get any cheaper,” he continued.
“It’s tempting to try to move ahead of the [Indianapolis] Colts for a cornerback or the [Seattle] Seahawks for offensive line help, but the Dolphins need to start stacking up some cost-controlled talent to support what is becoming an extremely expensive core,” Barnwell advised. Noting: “They are also down their third-round pick from the tampering case from 2022 and their fourth rounder from the trade for pass-rusher Bradley Chubb from the same year, so they could use the added picks.”
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