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Running back is not considered an area of need for the Miami Dolphins in 2024, considering their current financial situation ($51.898 million over the cap) and the fact that Raheem Mostert, De’Von Achane, Chris Brooks and Jeff Wilson Jr. are all signed to affordable contracts through 2025 or longer.
And yet, the oddsmakers over at DraftKings Sportsbook gave the Dolphins a +2500 chance of landing superstar ball-carrier Derrick Henry in NFL free agency. That probability was tied for ninth best in the league, alongside the Las Vegas Raiders.
Covers analyst Trevor Knapp outlined the full odds breakdown for Henry’s next team on February 13, and the favorite was another AFC contender: the Baltimore Ravens.
Although payouts of +2500 are only considered “underdog odds” in the betting world, it’s somewhat surprising that Miami even made the top 10. Henry did state that he wanted to get drafted by the Dolphins during a January 16 appearance on the “Bussin’ With The Boys” podcast, but that was back in 2016.
That’s not to say Miami wouldn’t be interested in the four-time Pro Bowler and 2020 Offensive Player of the Year. In a different cap and roster situation, they’d most likely be all over adding Henry to Mike McDaniel’s dynamic rushing attack.
However, that just doesn’t seem prudent in 2024. Henry has nearly 11,000 career regular season scrimmage yards, and that total is just under 12,000 if you count the playoffs. The long-time Tennessee Titans RB will provide a necessary boost for someone this offseason — it just probably won’t be the Dolphins.
Covers Predicts Derrick Henry Will Sign With Cowboys in 2024 Free Agency
Even if Henry isn’t a match for the Dolphins in 2024, it’d be nice to see “The King” exit the AFC conference. The 30-year-old bruiser ranked top 10 in yards after contact per attempt last season despite his age (minimum 20% snaps played), and he’s still as punishing a runner as there is in the modern-day NFL.
Having said that, Miami may not have to worry about Henry in the AFC playoff conversation next year. Knapp predicted that the Dallas Cowboys would sign the former All-Pro at the end of his odds breakdown with Covers.
“In his first season without Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard struggled as starting RB for the Dallas Cowboys, seeing his yards per attempt tick down from 5.2 to 4.0,” Knapp reasoned. “With Pollard now a free agent and ‘America’s Team’ coming off yet another disappointing playoff showing, Jerry Jones will be looking to make a splash in free agency.”
The betting analyst concluded that “Henry certainly fits the bill,” acknowledging that the Titans legend “donning the star on the side of his helmet would be a sight to behold.”
DraftKings Sportsbooks gave the Cowboys +550 odds to sign Henry, which ranked third.
Dolphins RB De’Von Achane Has Potential to Explode in Year 2
Achane’s exciting rookie campaign was slowed by injury and Mostert — who had a career season in 2023. Assuming health, the speedster is expected to explode in year two.
“There’s an argument to be made that Achane’s rookie season was a breakout after posting over 800 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns,” wrote Pro Football Focus analyst Jonathon Macri on January 26. “However, Achane did this on just 119 offensive snaps (49th) across 11 games in the regular season while also playing behind Raheem Mostert.”
“Mostert is still scheduled to be with the team in 2023 but will be 32 years old and could handle a lighter workload, especially considering how efficient Achane was with his touches,” the PFF writer continued at the time, highlighting the Dolphins second-year talent as an “early breakout.”
Macri deduced that “a larger workload and a full season could equal a true breakout season for the 2023 third-round pick, even if [Achane] doesn’t maintain his historic 7.9 yards per carry.”
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