Getty Dallas Turner of the Minnesota Vikings.
Both of the Minnesota Vikings’ first-round draft picks can be considered steals since both were selected well below their peak draft projections. But between No. 10 overall pick J.J. McCarthy and No. 17 pick Dallas Turner, there is a clear-cut winner.
Quarterback is the most important position in the game. And the Vikings didn’t have to surrender their second first-round pick to land McCarthy.
Still, it is Turner who checks in as the top steal, not just for the Vikings, but for the entire round.
“New Vikings edge rusher Dallas Turner was the biggest steal of the draft, per the ESPN NFL Draft Predictor, which factors in expert mock drafts, Scouts Inc. grades and team needs,” ESPN’s Kevin Seifert reported on X on April 25. “There was a 3% chance Turner would be available at No. 17.”
Dallas Turner ➡️ Brian Burns?
@MoveTheSticks and @LanceZierlein give their NFL comparisons for DJ’s No. 12 overall player in the 2024 #NFLDraft
Catch all of DJ’s Draft Show on #NFLPlus t.co/o5dYgoS42t
It makes sense, then, that the Vikings got aggressive, swinging their second trade of the evening – this time with the Jacksonville Jaguars – to land a player some considered the top pass rusher in the class.
Vikings’ Trades for Dallas Turner Pick Under Scrutiny
GettyDallas Turner of the Minnesota Vikings.
Turner recorded a career-best 10.0 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss last season with the Crimson Tide. Landing him where they did seemingly enhances the value of the selection.
But not every metric points to this being a sound investment for the Vikings.
“If we combine the value lost by the Vikings’ two trades (earlier deal with Texans to get to 23, then deal to move from 23 to 17), they burned the equivalent of an extra mid-first-round pick,” ESPN’s Seth Walder posted on X on April 25. “In other words: they basically spent *two* mid-firsts on Dallas Turner.”
The Vikings sent picks Nos. 42 and 188 along – worth 496.2 points, per the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart from DraftTek – with a 2025 second-rounder in exchange for Nos. 23 and 232, which are worth a combined 761 points.
It’s the future second-round pick, valued at roughly the same value as the last pick of that round in this year’s draft, that brings the total to 766 points and tilts the deal in Houston’s favor.
Their deal for the No. 17 overall pick was less costly.
Vikings on Ominuous Path After Draft Deals
GettyDallas Turner of the Minnesota Vikings.
The Vikings sent out approximately 923 points worth of draft capital to the Jaguars in the form of picks Nos. 23 and 167 as well as third and fourth-round picks in 2025. They got the No. 17 overall pick (950 points) back.
That means the Vikings still surrendered 22 fewer points than they got back. Just the act of trading up puts them in ominous company, though, as ESPN’s Bill Barnwell explained.
Teasing an article for next week, but when teams trade up for an edge rusher, they:
– fail to produce the expected value from the picks given up 62% of the time (coming up about 25% short)
– the team trading down lands the best individual player in the trade 56% of the time
It doesn’t help that Turner is being brought in in the wake of Danielle Hunter’s departure in free agency. Hunter was coming off a career year with 16.5 sacks.
The Vikings also took a bit of a haircut in the deal to move up one spot for McCarthy. They sent out 1,321.6 points worth of picks (Nos. 11, 129, and 157) to the New York Jets for Nos. 10 and 203, which were worth 1,310.2 points.
Comments
Metric Points to Vikings’ 1st-Round Pick as ‘Biggest Steal’ of 2024 Draft